AD Ceuta 1-1 Real Valladolid: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. AD Ceuta 1-1 Real Valladolid.

90+12'

P. Tomeo

Yellow card for P. Tomeo (Real Valladolid) for foul.

90+11'

J. Escobar

Attempt missed. J. Escobar (AD Ceuta), header from a throw-in. xG 0.05.

90+11'

Carlos

Goal! AD Ceuta 1-1 Real Valladolid. Carlos (AD Ceuta) scores, assisted by J. Escobar.

90+9'

G. Okoro

Attempt missed. G. Okoro (AD Ceuta), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

90+6'

A. Caparrós

Attempt missed. A. Caparrós (AD Ceuta), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

90+5'

AD Ceuta

Corner, AD Ceuta.

90+1'

O. Sadik

Second yellow card for O. Sadik (AD Ceuta), who is sent off.

90+1'

AD Ceuta

Offside, AD Ceuta.

90'

8 minutes of added time.

89'

AD Ceuta

Corner, AD Ceuta.

89'

J. Escobar

Attempt blocked. J. Escobar (AD Ceuta), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.

89'

L. Chacón

Substitution, Real Valladolid: P. Tomeo comes on for L. Chacón.

87'

A. Balboa

Second yellow card for A. Balboa (Real Valladolid), who is sent off.

86'

I. G. Muñoz

Yellow card for I. G. Muñoz (Real Valladolid) for foul.

85'

O. Sadik

Yellow card for O. Sadik (AD Ceuta) for argument.

82'

J. Latasa

Substitution, Real Valladolid: R. v. Duiven comes on for J. Latasa.

81'

Real Valladolid

Corner, Real Valladolid.

80'

Y. Cabanzón

Attempt missed. Y. Cabanzón (Real Valladolid), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.01.

80'

L. Chacón

Attempt saved. L. Chacón (Real Valladolid), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.15.

79'

A. Balboa

Yellow card for A. Balboa (Real Valladolid) for foul.

70'

J. Ponceau

Substitution, Real Valladolid: A. Balboa comes on for J. Ponceau.

70'

V. Fernández

Substitution, Real Valladolid: K. de Rooij comes on for V. Fernández.

70'

A. Arnu

Substitution, Real Valladolid: Y. Cabanzón comes on for A. Arnu.

70'

E. Sevikyan

Substitution, AD Ceuta: J. González comes on for E. Sevikyan.

69'

O. Sadik

Attempt saved. O. Sadik (AD Ceuta), left-footed shot. xG 0.30.

67'

J. Escobar

Attempt blocked. J. Escobar (AD Ceuta), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

67'

AD Ceuta

Corner, AD Ceuta.

64'

A. Meléndez

Substitution, AD Ceuta: O. Sadik comes on for A. Meléndez.

64'

A. Camacho

Substitution, AD Ceuta: J. Escobar comes on for A. Camacho.

53'

J. Latasa

Goal! AD Ceuta 0-1 Real Valladolid. J. Latasa (Real Valladolid) scores, assisted by J. Ponceau.

52'

J. Ponceau

Attempt blocked. J. Ponceau (Real Valladolid), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

48'

K. Zalazar

Attempt blocked. K. Zalazar (AD Ceuta), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.10.

48'

T. Abad

Attempt saved. T. Abad (AD Ceuta), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

46'

A. Betancourt

Substitution, AD Ceuta: T. Abad comes on for A. Betancourt.

46'

M. Mensah

Substitution, AD Ceuta: Y. Bodiger comes on for M. Mensah.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. AD Ceuta 0-0 Real Valladolid.

36'

Real Valladolid

Corner, Real Valladolid.

34'

M. Mensah

Attempt blocked. M. Mensah (AD Ceuta), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

31'

Carlos

Yellow card for Carlos (AD Ceuta) for foul.

31'

V. Fernández

Attempt blocked. V. Fernández (Real Valladolid), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

27'

AD Ceuta

Offside, AD Ceuta.

22'

V. Fernández

Attempt saved. V. Fernández (Real Valladolid), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

22'

A. Arnu

Attempt saved. A. Arnu (Real Valladolid), header. xG 0.14.

21'

A. Arnu

Attempt saved. A. Arnu (Real Valladolid), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

21'

L. Chacón

Attempt missed. L. Chacón (Real Valladolid), right-footed shot. xG 0.32.

18'

J. Latasa

Attempt missed. J. Latasa (Real Valladolid), header. xG 0.18.

14'

E. Sevikyan

Attempt blocked. E. Sevikyan (AD Ceuta), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

14'

A. Meléndez

Off the woodwork! A. Meléndez (AD Ceuta), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

12'

J. Latasa

Yellow card for J. Latasa (Real Valladolid) for foul.

11'

Real Valladolid

Corner, Real Valladolid.

11'

L. Chacón

Attempt saved. L. Chacón (Real Valladolid), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

9'

AD Ceuta

Offside, AD Ceuta.

1'

Kick-off: AD Ceuta vs Real Valladolid.

Where the money is

182573 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 74103 EUR · live

Away 24.0 · implied 4.2%

68.7%

+64.5 vs price

Home 230.0 · implied 0.4%

16.5%

+16.1 vs price

Draw 1.06 · implied 94.3%

14.8%

-79.6 vs price

Half time 592 EUR · live

Home 4.5 · implied 22.2%

78.5%

+56.3 vs price

Draw 2.18 · implied 45.9%

21.3%

-24.6 vs price

Away 3.3 · implied 30.3%

0.0%

-30.3 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 33996 EUR · live

Under 1.19 · implied 84.0%

87.0%

+3.0 vs price

Over 100.0 · implied 1.0%

15.0%

+13.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 334 EUR · live

Under 1.06 · implied 94.3%

71.9%

-22.5 vs price

Over 17.5 · implied 5.7%

27.8%

+22.1 vs price

12 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

12' J. Latasa · Foul

31' Carlos · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

46' 🔁 Y. Bodiger ◂ M. Mensah

46' 🔁 T. Abad ◂ A. Betancourt

53' ⚽ J. Latasa · assist J. Ponceau0–1

64' 🔁 J. Escobar ◂ A. Camacho

64' 🔁 O. Sadik ◂ A. Meléndez

70' 🔁 J. González ◂ E. Sevikyan

70' 🔁 Y. Cabanzón ◂ A. Arnu

70' 🔁 K. de Rooij ◂ V. Fernández

70' 🔁 A. Balboa ◂ J. Ponceau

79' A. Balboa · Foul

82' 🔁 R. v. Duiven ◂ J. Latasa

85' O. Sadik · Argument

86' I. G. Muñoz · Foul

87' A. Balboa · Foul

89' 🔁 P. Tomeo ◂ L. Chacón

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺¹ O. Sadik · Foul

90'⁺¹¹ ⚽ Carlos · assist J. Escobar1–1

90'⁺¹² P. Tomeo · Foul

Coaches

José Juan Romero

Francisco Escribá Segura

Recent form

AD Ceuta

LABurgos Club de Fútbol1-3

LHCelta Fortuna0-2

LAMallorca0-3

LHUD Las Palmas0-2

LAFC Andorra1-5

Real Valladolid

LHReal Oviedo0-3

WHFC Andorra1-0

DACádiz1-1

LAEibar0-1

LAMallorca0-2

About this match

**Valladolid rolls into Ceuta looking to extend their road dominance — the hosts haven't won in five and are in proper freefall.** 🔴⚪

Ceuta are in a dark place right now, winless across their last five with conceding problems that'd make a defense coach weep. Valladolid, meanwhile, have **won both head-to-head meetings** and carry that psychological edge into an away fixture where the hosts are vulnerable.

Key storylines:

- **AD Ceuta's defensive fragility** — three straight losses including 0–3 to Mallorca; Anuar and K. O. Mamah out on the injury front won't help matters
- **Valladolid's traveling pedigree** — unbeaten in the h2h and clicking just enough (1W, 1D in recent outings) to suggest they're the sharper outfit
- **Finishing matters** — expect Valladolid to break through with **R. v. Duiven** and company if Ceuta's backline gives space

Expected lineups:

- **AD Ceuta**: P. López, Redru, Carlos, A. Lapeña, Á. Petxa, M. Illescas, K. Zalazar, Y. Bodiger, K. A. Kone, O. Sadik, A. Camacho
- **Real Valladolid**: A. A. Catalina, C. Clerc, D. Torres, R. Martínez, I. Alejo, J. Ponceau, A. Balboa, K. de Rooij, L. Chacón, Y. Cabanzón, R. v. Duiven

Prediction:

**Valladolid 2–0 Ceuta.** The visitors have too much pedigree and momentum for a Ceuta side hemorrhaging form.

Where to watch

Betano

Match facts

Stadium

Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

City

Ceuta

Referee

Saul Ais Reig

5.25 yellows/match · 51 matches

Kickoff

20 Sep, 14:15 UTC

Competition

Segunda División

Highlights & clips

AD Ceuta 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1 Real Valladolid

13 G. Vallejo 7.2 2 T. Abad 6.5 ↑ 46' 6 Carlos 7.0 4 A. Caparrós 6.8 3 J. Matos 6.6 29 O. Sadik 5.9 ↑ 64' 14 Y. Bodiger 6.6 ↑ 46' 32 G. Okoro 7.5 15 J. González 6.4 ↑ 70' 8 K. Zalazar 6.3 9 J. Escobar 6.6 ↑ 64' 1 A. A. Catalina 7.6 14 I. Alejo 6.3 12 M. Rubio 7.2 4 D. Torres 7.0 27 I. G. Muñoz 7.5 24 S. Jurić 6.6 11 Y. Cabanzón 6.7 ↑ 70' 15 P. Tomeo 6.1 ↑ 89' 16 A. Balboa 5.6 ↑ 70' 22 K. de Rooij 6.5 ↑ 70' 20 R. v. Duiven 6.5 ↑ 82'

Substitutes

1GP. López 34DD. M. Soria 7MA. Camacho↓ 64'7.5 17MM. Mensah↓ 46'6.9 26MA. Betancourt↓ 46'6.7 20MA. Meléndez↓ 64'6.5 19ME. Sevikyan↓ 70'6.5 28MA. B. Espinosa 31MA. Romero 27FU. K. Tounkara

Coach: José Juan Romero

Substitutes

26GL. Lavagnino 5DR. Martínez 18DC. Clerc 2DTrilli 21MJ. Ponceau↓ 70'7.3 7ML. Chacón↓ 89'7.3 30MV. Fernández↓ 70'7.2 32MM. Parriego 9FJ. Latasa↓ 82'7.0 19FA. Arnu↓ 70'6.7 17FV. Barberá 23FT. A. Kassus

Coach: Francisco Escribá Segura

Top stats

45%Possession55%

1.22Expected goals (xG, estimated)1.19

12Total shots11

3Shots on target6

1Big chances5

3Corners3

Shots

4Shots off target3

5Blocked shots2

8Shots inside box6

4Shots outside box5

1Hit woodwork1

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed4

Attack

23Touches in box26

43Final third entries70

3Offsides0

17Free kicks14

3Fouled in final third1

Passing

316Passes394

242Accurate passes316

20/55 (36%)Long balls31/55 (56%)

6/18 (33%)Crosses10/22 (45%)

29Throw-ins29

Duels

45Duels55

51/98 (52%)Ground duels47/98 (48%)

7/30 (23%)Aerial duels23/30 (77%)

6/23 (26%)Dribbles6/21 (29%)

12Dispossessed13

Defending

28Tackles29

68Tackles won66

14Interceptions16

20Clearances21

60Recoveries53

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow cards5

1Red cards1

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

8Goal kicks3

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Ceuta 34%

28%

Valladolid 37%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 73% · 1.31 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 61% · 1.57 @ Pinnacle

1X2Valladolid to win 37% · 2.80 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 28% · 2.43 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 52% · 1.17 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73% · 1.31 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 3.40 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 72% · 2.15 @ William Hill

Who winsCeuta to win (DNB) 56% · 2.10 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 50% · 1.87 @ Pinnacle

1X2Ceuta to win 34% · 3.10 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.70

AD Ceuta

3.20

Draw

2.45

Real Valladolid

Double Chanceconsensus

1.48

AD Ceuta or Draw

1.30

AD Ceuta or Real Valladolid

1.40

Draw or Real Valladolid

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.77

Yes

1.95

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

4.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.60

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

9.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.31

Over 1.50

3.32

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.00

Over 2.50

1.81

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.50

Over 3.50

1.28

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.27

Over 4.50

1.07

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.05

AD Ceuta

1.72

Real Valladolid

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.48

Over 7.50

2.46

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.85

Over 8.50

1.90

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.31

Over 9.50

1.54

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.00

Over 10.50

1.31

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.20

Over 11.50

1.16

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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