Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
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**Leganés look like they've found their groove at home, but Castellón's coming in hot — 4W in their last 5 is genuinely scary form.** 🔥 This could be a proper test for the hosts.
Leganés have bounced back nicely with wins against Granada and a solid draw away, though that loss to Tenerife stung. Castellón, though? They're on another level right now — that 5-0 demolition of Tenerife is the kind of statement that turns heads in the second tier.
Key storylines:
- **Leganés' home form vs. Castellón's relentless attack** — the visitors have won 3 of the last 4 head-to-head, so there's a real question mark over whether the hosts can protect Estadio Municipal de Butarque
- **N. García and Á. Morata** need to be clinical in transition; Castellón's back line will test the home setup early
- **H. Bellari and O. Camara** have been finishing chances ruthlessly — Leganés can't afford another sloppy defensive display like the Tenerife loss
Expected lineups:
- **Leganés**: L. Zidane, I. Miquel, Marvel, L. Aguilar, Y. Kechta, M. Atienza, Z. Buurmeester, Á. Morata, P. Soko, N. García
- **CD Castellón**: R. Matthys, L. Alcázar, A. Jiménez, A. Sienra, J. Mellot, R. Sánchez, D. Barri, F. Castillo, H. Bellari, O. Camara, A. Jakobsen
Prediction:
**1-1 draw** — both teams have too much quality to lose, but Castellón's away form on this stage makes them a slight edge.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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