Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Girona rolls into the island fortress as Segunda División's form horse, but Tenerife's home patch is never a walk in the park.** 🏝️ This is the clash of momentum meets tradition — Girona's 3-1-1 run in their last five is genuinely sharp, while Tenerife are sputtering (1-2-2) but dangerous at the Heliodoro.
Girona have won three of their last four, including a tidy 2-0 over Albacete and a road victory at Cádiz. Tenerife are leaky defensively — that 0-5 mauling to Castellón stings — but beat Córdoba at their place and drew at home to Cádiz. Head-to-head leans Girona's way (8 wins to Tenerife's 6 in 21 meetings), but these sides know each other well.
Key storylines:
- **Girona's midfield machine**: F. Beltrán and I. González have been orchestrating slick passing moves; Tenerife's N. Gil and F. Assis need to scrap for possession.
- **Tenerife's home grit vs. Girona's ruthlessness**: Tenerife lean on the fortress, but without J. Álvarez (muscle injury), their attacking thrust takes a hit.
- **Defensive frailty under spotlight**: Both defenses have wobbled; whichever side cleans up set pieces could steal this.
Expected lineups:
- **CD Tenerife**: D. Martín, D. R. Ramos, A. Landázuri, J. León, N. Gil, F. Assis, E. Gallego, C. Gomis
- **Girona FC**: P. Gazzaniga, Á. Moreno, A. Francés, D. López, F. Beltrán, I. González, C. Pérez, A. Ruíz
Prediction:
**Girona 1–1 Tenerife** 🤝 Slight edge to the visitors' form, but the island hosts a draw.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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