Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Burgos looking to cash in at home after a bumpy run**, while **Sabadell steadies the ship with draws aplenty**. This Segunda División clash has got genuine stakes written all over it. 🔥
Burgos sit on a streaky 3W-2L over their last five but just got done losing to Almería at home — that sting should fuel them here. Sabadell, meanwhile, are the steadier hand with 2W-2D, drawing their last two and clearly built on a solid defensive base.
Key storylines:
- **Burgos need a confidence boost** — two losses in their last three means El Plantio has to be a fortress moment
- **Sabadell's missing teeth**: E. González out to suspension and N. Gioacchini (ACL) leaves them light, so their back line gets tested
- **Head-to-head split** — these sides have won one each in recent meetings, so it's genuinely even odds
Expected lineups:
- **Burgos Club de Fútbol**: A. Cantero, A. Dadie, I. Vilarrasa, O. Luengo, S. González, D. González, J. Llabrés, J. Gragera
- **CE Sabadell**: D. Fuoli, M. Codina, O. S. Naval, J. L. Catala, Pipa, J. López, A. Orriols, Q. Liameed
Prediction:
**Burgos 2–1 Sabadell**
Home pressure + Sabadell's absentees = edge to the locals. Tight match, but Burgos get the nod. ⚽
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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