Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Cádiz are desperate to steady the ship after a rough patch, but Ceuta's spoiler form makes this no gimme.** The hosts are winless in four and shipped five goals in their last two away games — yet when they beat Leganés 4-0 at home, they looked genuinely dangerous. Ceuta just drew 1-1 at Castellón and have taken points off decent sides; they thrive as underdogs. 🎯
Cádiz's injury woes (no Petit or Tabatadze) sting on a day they need to click. Ceuta's H2H edge is sharp — they've won two of the last three meetings. Watch how the hosts respond to early pressure.
Key storylines:
- **Cádiz** must find rhythm at home or the frustration piles up; one more loss and the pressure mounts.
- **Ceuta's defensive structure** under Carlos and Á. Petxa has kept them competitive — if they stay compact, they can nab a draw or worse.
- **V. Kopotun and I. Sánchez** will need to create openings for a Cádiz side lacking depth in attack.
Expected lineups:
- **Cádiz**: J. Ezkieta, C. Gutiérrez, J. Castro, M. Fernández, J. Díaz, M. Doué, J. Orellana, A. Cordero, I. Sánchez, U. Izeta, V. Kopotun
- **AD Ceuta**: G. Vallejo, J. Matos, Carlos, A. Caparrós, Á. Petxa, Y. Bodiger, K. Zalazar, M. Illescas, K. A. Kone, J. Escobar, A. Camacho
Prediction:
**Cádiz 2–1 AD Ceuta.** Slight lean to the hosts; home pressure and injury-driven urgency edge out Ceuta's road craft. 🔴
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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