Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Leganés are in freefall, and Mallorca smell blood.** This Segunda División clash pits a team that's lost four of five against one riding decent form with two wins and two draws in the same stretch. 🔥
Leganés have shipped 8 goals in their last two games alone — Almería (3) and Cádiz (4) did serious damage. Mallorca, meanwhile, just beat UD Las Palmas 3-1 and haven't lost since round 6. The head-to-head is dead even (3-3-4 over ten), so there's no obvious pattern, but **current trajectory screams Mallorca.**
Key storylines:
- **Leganés missing Á. Morata** to suspension and desperate to stop the bleeding at Butarque
- **Mallorca's injury list is brutal** — four players out, including J. Donald (red card) — yet they're still clicking in attack
- **N. García and A. Sánchez** will be the focal points up front; whoever gets more service wins the day
Expected lineups:
- **Leganés**: L. Zidane, E. Franquesa, Marvel, Z. Buurmeester, Y. Kechta, I. Gharbi, P. Soko, N. García
- **Mallorca**: A. Tenas, T. Lato, A. Raíllo, S. Darder, A. Sánchez, A. Fuentes, A. Liso, P. Torre
Prediction:
**Mallorca 2–1 Leganés.** Slight favorite to the visitors; Leganés have defensive issues that Mallorca's passing game will exploit, even without a full squad.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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