Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Athletic Club rolls into Eibar's den with **crushing recent form** — and the head-to-head record is basically a warning label.** Eibar's mixed bag (two wins but also that 1-4 shocker vs Badalona) sits uncomfortably against Athletic's four-win streak. 📊
Eibar did hold Real Madrid to a draw, which is solid, but they're leaky defensively. Athletic, meanwhile, has been clinical — three wins in their last three before the draw, showing they can shift up a gear when it matters.
Key storylines:
- **Athletic Club's defensive shape** (B. S. Solano, M. Torre, N. Landaluze anchoring a 3-5-2) looks built to suffocate Eibar's midfield
- **N. Sánchez and E. Moreno** need to find space in Eibar's front two or Athletic's back three will camp on them all day
- **The 8-2 h2h gulf** is real — Athletic haven't lost to Eibar in a decade
Expected lineups:
- **SD Eibar**: A. Wellmann, A. Bélem, C. Andrés, M. Masegur, A. Zumárraga, S. Ortíz, N. Fernández, A. R. Torres, E. Moreno, N. Sánchez, C. Álvarez
- **Athletic Club**: A. Nanclares, B. S. Solano, M. Torre, N. Landaluze, J. A. Martinez, S. O. Ruiz, I. Oguiza, C. Pinedo, M. Valero, A. Campos, P. Zugasti
Prediction:
**Athletic Club win 2-0.** Lean Athletic — the form gap and historical edge are too much for Eibar right now.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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