Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Mikel Crespo
Valencia
Costa Adeje Tenerife**Valencia's in free fall** — zero wins in five matches, while Costa Adeje Tenerife's actually got some poise this season. This could go either way. ⚽
Valencia's leaking goals (conceded 8 in three recent outings) and struggling to convert chances. Tenerife, meanwhile, has quietly compiled draws and wins in tougher away fixtures. That H2H record is wild — Tenerife leads 11-4 historically.
Key storylines:
- **Valencia's defensive frailty** against Tenerife's organized press; the home team needs to tighten up fast or face another defeat
- **Tenerife's counter-punch threat** — **P. Gramaglia** and **Y. Moreno** have shown they can strike on the break
- **Set pieces as a wildcard** — both teams lean on defensive shape; corners and free kicks could decide a tight affair
Expected lineups:
- **Valencia**: A. Pinguet, L. Pérez, C. Sáez, N. Martín, Pauleta, S. Tamarit, E. G. Martínez, Y. Mrabet, C. Marín
- **Costa Adeje Tenerife**: N. R. Álvarez, E. Vergés, F. Dembele, P. G. Collado, A. N. Koko, B. Flores, Y. Moreno, P. Gramaglia
Prediction:
**1-1 draw**. Valencia's at home but fragile; Tenerife's compact and dangerous on the counter. Coin flip, basically. 🤝
Valencia
5-3-2 · 5-3-2
Costa Adeje Tenerife
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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