Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Thorsten Fink
Samsunspor
Çorum FK**Samsunspor are limping through this stretch, but Çorum FK's defensive chaos gives them an opening.** Home advantage at the Yeni 19 Mayıs might just be the tonic a wounded side needs. 🏟️
Samsunspor have won just once in five, though they did bash Çaykur Rizespor 2-0 recently. Çorum are equally wobbly — one win in five, and that 6-2 hammering by Beşiktaş screams vulnerability at the back.
Key storylines:
- **Samsunspor's injury crisis** keeps mounting (Sousa, Tavsan, Watt, Kaya, Drapiński all out), forcing creative lineup shuffling
- **Çorum's leaky defense** conceded six to Beşiktaş; expect **Guarino** and **Sekongo** to hunt chances from the flanks
- Home form becomes critical when both teams are fragile — Samsunspor simply need three points to stop the slide
Expected lineups:
- **Samsunspor**: O. Koçuk, J. Mendes, A. Diabaté, T. Borevković, L. Tómasson, Y. Kayan, C. Yüksel, S. Jarju, E. Kılınç, G. Guarino, A. Sekongo
- **Çorum FK**: M. Felipe, A. Borza, H. Smolčić, G. Sazdağı, A. Penetra, M. Diomande, Fredy, A. Kyziridis, A. Ildız, B. Özdemir, J. Ramírez
Prediction:
**Samsunspor 2–1 Çorum FK**
Slight lean to the hosts — they have the setup to exploit Çorum's shaky rearguard, even with half the squad sidelined. 💪
Samsunspor
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1
Çorum FK
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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