Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Kasımpaşa's been steady. Samsunspor's been a disaster.** This is the kind of fixture where form tells the whole story, and the hosts are massive favorites despite a mixed recent patch. 🎯
Kasımpaşa sit on a decent run — three draws mixed with a win and a loss — while Samsunspor are in **free fall**, winless in five with a -11 goal difference that screams panic. The visitors haven't tasted victory all season, and playing away at Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium won't break that curse.
Key storylines:
- **Kasımpaşa's midfield balance** with K. Demirbay anchoring shapes their control — they'll dominate possession against a visiting side that looks lost tactically
- **Samsunspor's attacking impotence** means even if they stay compact, they'll struggle to threaten A. Gianniotis; M. Bayo is their only real focal point up top
- **Head-to-head tightness** — H2H shows 3-3 over seven meetings, but current form blows that out the water
Expected lineups:
- **Kasımpaşa**: A. Gianniotis, J. Jessen, M. Ilie, A. Arous, C. Winck, K. Demirbay, A. Mujde, A. Benedyczak, H. Hajradinović, J. Rak-Sakyi, G. Yalçın
- **Samsunspor**: O. Koçuk, L. Tómasson, G. Guarino, Y. E. Çift, J. Mendes, Y. Kayan, E. Watt, E. Kılınç, A. Sousa, S. Jarju, M. Bayo
Prediction:
**Kasımpaşa 2-0 Samsunspor.** Home side's edge is just too big to ignore. 📍
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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