Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Erzurumspor's hitting form at the right time** — three wins in five and a home fortress awaiting Çorum, who've stumbled badly on the road. 🔥
Erzurumspor are clicking, with back-to-back wins and clean sheets building momentum before the break. Çorum have the talent (3W in five overall) but their away record stings — they've lost both road trips this streak, and injuries to **Ç. Söyüncü**, **E. Gürlük**, and **S. Saatçı** thin the squad at a rough moment.
Key storylines:
- **Erzurumspor's 5-4-1 press at home**: **G. Giorbelidze** and **E. Owusu** midfield engine running hot, defensive shape locked in under **N. Mujakić** and **Y. Kırtay**
- **Çorum's injury crisis**: Three muscle injuries mean makeshift defending, and **H. Smolčić** carries extra load in a weakened backline
- **Away form collapse**: Çorum 0-2 to Göztepe, 0-3 to Gaziantep — road woes continue against in-form hosts
Expected lineups:
- **Erzurumspor FK**: E. Taşkıran, A. Gerxhaliu, N. Mujakić, Y. Kırtay, M. Rodríguez, O. Ovacıklı, G. Giorbelidze, E. Owusu, S. Akgün, B. Baiye, E. Tozlu
- **Çorum FK**: M. Felipe, A. Borza, H. Smolčić, G. Sazdağı, A. Penetra, Fredy, A. Kyziridis, C. Ünder, Y. Ramadani, M. Diomande, J. Ramírez
Prediction:
**Erzurumspor 2-0 Çorum**. Home advantage + form + Çorum's defensive casualties = the hosts' lean. 🎯
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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