Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Thessaloniki derbyfire — both sides need a statement win after shaky starts.** 🔥 PAOK's been all over the map (2W-1D-2L), while Aris are riding momentum but just got demolished 0-5 by AEK, so someone's ego is definitely on the line here.
PAOK have the historical edge in this fixture (37 wins to Aris's 23), but they're dealing with a rough injury list and a red-card suspension that'll sting. Aris bounced back to beat OFI last week though, so they've got that quick-turnaround confidence. Classic derby chaos brewing.
Key storylines:
- **C. Ndiaye and B. Garré** will be the creative fulcrums — pace matters in tight derbies, and both sides need their wingers clicking
- **PAOK's suspension burden**: **A. Elustondo** out means defensive reshuffles; **Aris thrive on set-piece chaos** when opponents are stretched
- **Aris momentum vs. PAOK pedigree** — one's hot, one's hurt; home advantage at Toumba leans toward the hosts despite their recent wobble
Expected lineups:
- **PAOK**: J. Pavlenka, R. Baba, G. Michailidis, D. Bataoulas, J. Kenny, C. Zafeiris, B. Santamaria, T. Ali, D. Pelkas, A. Živković, C. Ndiaye
- **Aris Thessaloniki**: R. Velho, O. Richards, Fabiano, B. Šutalo, N. Fadiga, U. Račić, T. Dele-Bashiru, O. Boussaid, F. Jensen, B. Garré, T. Kadewere
Prediction:
**PAOK 2–1 Aris.** Home turf and experience edge past Aris's hot streak; derby matches reward defensive discipline, and PAOK's got the historical muscle here.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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