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Diego Arias
Fortaleza FC
Atlético Nacional
Fortaleza FC
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1
Atlético Nacional
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
64586 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
57.0%
-42.0 vs price
Home
46.0 · implied 2.2%
27.6%
+25.4 vs price
Draw
5.0 · implied 20.0%
15.4%
-4.6 vs price
Half time
181 EUR
Home
6.8 · implied 14.7%
75.1%
+60.4 vs price
Away
2.3 · implied 43.5%
24.3%
-19.2 vs price
Draw
1.79 · implied 55.9%
8.1%
-47.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
16019 EUR · live
Under
1.44 · implied 69.4%
72.6%
+3.2 vs price
Over
3.35 · implied 29.9%
27.4%
-2.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
1507 EUR · live
Under
1.07 · implied 93.5%
97.5%
+4.1 vs price
Over
15.5 · implied 6.5%
2.5%
-4.0 vs price
11 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 5 clips
Player of the match
Match events
31'
🔁
M. Moreno ◂ N. Rodríguez
43'
⚽
A. Copete · assist S. Navarro1–0
Half-time · 1–0
45'+1
M. Casco · Foul
46'
🔁
I. Poveda ◂ A. Sarmiento
46'
🔁
E. Cardona ◂ J. M. Rengifo
46'
🔁
A. Morelos ◂ C. Arango
70'
🔁
S. Velásquez ◂ M. Casco
71'
🔁
J. Velásquez ◂ J. Solis
71'
🔁
J. Blanco ◂ S. Navarro
77'
⚽
A. Morelos · assist I. Poveda1–1
79'
🔁
T. Wilke ◂ S. Herrera
79'
🔁
A. D. Batioja ◂ R. Rivas
85'
E. Cardona · Argument
88'
VAR
Penalty check · E. Cardona
89'
⚽
E. Cardona (pen)1–2
89'
A. Copete · Argument
Full-time · 1–2
90'+2
J. Cajares · Foul
90'+6
S. Velásquez · Argument
90'+10
VAR
Goal disallowed · Y. Díaz
Coaches
Diego AriasLucas González 
Recent form
Fortaleza FCWHCúcuta Deportivo2-0
LALlaneros FC1-3
DHDeportivo Pereira0-0
DAAlianza Valledupar FC1-1
DACúcuta Deportivo0-0
Atlético NacionalLAAmérica de Cali0-1
WAJaguares de Córdoba3-0
WATigres FC2-0
WHTigres FC2-0
LHDeportivo Táchira1-2
Where to watch
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin
City
Bogota
Kickoff
23 Aug, 19:00 UTC
Competition
Categoría Primera A
Highlights & clips
Fortaleza FC
4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1
Atlético Nacional
1
W. Barlasina
6.3
16
J. Cajares
6.0
6
Y. Díaz
6.8
2
A. Copete
6.8
23
J. Castillo
6.1
10
J. Velásquez
6.5
↑ 71'
14
L. Pico
6.8
28
S. Vivas
6.6
11
A. D. Batioja
6.6
↑ 79'
29
T. Wilke
6.5
↑ 79'
20
J. Blanco
6.5
↑ 71'
34
F. Armani
6.3
6
A. Román
6.4
28
R. García
6.6
16
W. Tesillo
7.7
33
S. Velásquez
6.6
↑ 70'
80
J. Zapata
6.8
21
J. Campuzano
7.3
7
M. Moreno
6.0
↑ 31'
10
E. Cardona
7.9
↑ 46'
99
I. Poveda
6.5
↑ 46'
9
A. Morelos
8.3
↑ 46'
Substitutes
12GC. Santander
3DD. Ramírez
4DE. Cabezas
8MS. Navarro↓ 71'7.1
30MJ. Solis↓ 71'7.0
26MR. Rivas↓ 79'6.6
7MI. M. Cortes
9FS. Herrera↓ 79'6.2
5J. Medina
Coach: Diego Arias
Substitutes
44GE. Zea
20DM. Casco↓ 70'6.1
26DA. Marín
4DC. Haydar
13MN. Rodríguez↓ 31'6.6
29MA. Sarmiento↓ 46'6.4
19MJ. M. Rengifo↓ 46'6.3
30MK. Parra
17FC. Arango↓ 46'6.6
Coach: Lucas González
Top stats
35%Possession65%
0.51Expected goals (xG)1.93
10Total shots18
5Shots on target6
0Big chances1
4Corners7
Shots
5Shots off target8
0Blocked shots4
6Shots inside box12
4Shots outside box6
1Hit woodwork1
0Big chances scored1
-0.51Goals prevented-0.43
Attack
20Touches in box25
30Final third entries57
6Offsides2
13Free kicks13
4Fouled in final third3
Passing
215Passes410
157Accurate passes349
15/37 (41%)Long balls32/51 (63%)
5/11 (45%)Crosses7/19 (37%)
15Throw-ins8
Duels
48Duels52
27/60 (45%)Ground duels33/60 (55%)
6/9 (67%)Aerial duels3/9 (33%)
4/5 (80%)Dribbles3/7 (43%)
16Dispossessed6
Defending
10Tackles17
90Tackles won82
5Interceptions6
16Clearances9
32Recoveries49
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
14Goal kicks6
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 60 bookmakers
Who winsAtl. Nacional to win (DNB) 64% · 1.56 @ BetMGM.uk
1X2Atl. Nacional to win 45% · 2.45 @ efbet.net
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 55% · 1.16 @ granmadrid
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 76% · 1.29 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 29% · 2.48 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 67% · 1.48 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 55% · 1.83 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.77 @ 10bet
BTTSBoth teams to score 50% · 3.75 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 69% · 2.25 @ 10bet
1X2Fortaleza to win 26% · 4.64 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.47
Fortaleza FC ▼
3.17
Draw ▼
2.04
Atlético Nacional ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.68
Fortaleza FC or Draw ▼
1.30
Fortaleza FC or Atlético Nacional ▲
1.26
Draw or Atlético Nacional ▲
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.81
Yes ▲
1.87
No ▲
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
3.80
YES
1.22
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
2.50
YES
1.48
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
6.00
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.35
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.06
Over 0.50
9.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.32
Over 1.50 ▲
3.04
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.02
Over 2.50 ▲
1.70
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.55
Over 3.50 ▲
1.24
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.50
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.52
Fortaleza FC ▲
1.44
Atlético Nacional ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.34
Over 7.50
2.91
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.71
Over 8.50
1.97
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.96
Over 9.50
1.76
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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