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Pablo Repetto
Independiente Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Santa Fe
4-4-2 · 4-4-2
Deportes Tolima
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
39768 EUR · live
Home
1.02 · implied 98.0%
75.9%
-22.2 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
15.3%
+15.2 vs price
Draw
22.0 · implied 4.5%
9.1%
+4.5 vs price
Half time
283 EUR · live
Draw
1.09 · implied 91.7%
52.9%
-38.8 vs price
Away
11.0 · implied 9.1%
30.3%
+21.2 vs price
Home
13.5 · implied 7.4%
16.2%
+8.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
27006 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
89.8%
-9.2 vs price
Over
200.0 · implied 0.5%
10.2%
+9.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
785 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
67.9%
-31.1 vs price
Over
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
32.0%
+31.9 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
23'
🔁
E. Rodríguez ◂ M. Puerta
36'
E. López · Argument
42'
Nahuel Bustos · Foul
Half-time · 0–0
45'+3
V. Moreno · Foul
46'
🔁
E. Olivera ◂ V. Moreno
46'
🔁
J. Torres ◂ D. Torres
61'
⚽
Nahuel Bustos · assist A. Zapata1–0
62'
🔁
S. A. A. Castillo ◂ E. López
62'
🔁
J. Hurtado ◂ A. Parra
65'
E. Olivera · Foul
71'
VAR
Goal not given after review · E. Rodríguez
73'
🔁
F. Fagúndez ◂ A. Zapata
73'
🔁
H. Rodallega ◂ Nahuel Bustos
76'
🔁
C. Trujillo ◂ S. Guzmán
76'
🔁
J. Mosquera ◂ J. Mera
82'
🔁
J. Obrian ◂ M. Lovera
84'
🔁
S. Barbosa ◂ J. Hernández
86'
🔁
S. Joven ◂ L. Sánchez
Full-time · 1–0
90'+2
J. Mosquera · Foul
Coaches
Pablo RepettoSebastián Oliveros 
Recent form
Independiente Santa FeDHVasco da Gama0-0
DHFortaleza FC2-2
WHMillonarios3-2
DAJunior Barranquilla1-1
DARiver Plate1-1
Deportes TolimaWALlaneros FC2-1
WHCúcuta Deportivo2-1
LAIndependiente del Valle1-3
DHAtlético Bucaramanga0-0
LHIndependiente del Valle0-1
About this match
**Santa Fe's drawing habit meets Tolima's volatility — expect fireworks at El Campín.** 🔥
Santa Fe have been the draw kings with four stalemates in their last five, though they showed they can finish (3-2 over Millonarios). Tolima just knocked off Cúcuta and Llaneros but got humbled 3-1 by Independiente del Valle, so form is all over the place.
Key storylines:
- **Santa Fe's injury crisis** — missing five including K. Balanta (ACL) and H. Rodallega (muscle) — could force a more defensive setup
- **Tolima's inconsistency** — two wins sandwiched between losses; they'll need S. Guzmán and H. Martinez to control midfield
- **H2H edge to Santa Fe** — 8 wins to 6 in the last 21 meetings, plus they play at home
Expected lineups:
- **Independiente Santa Fe**: W. Asprilla, E. Olivera, H. Palacios, I. Scarpeta, J. Angulo, D. Torres, J. Torres, F. Fagúndez, A. Zapata, J. Obrian, M. Lovera
- **Deportes Tolima**: N. Volpi, J. Hernández, A. Angulo, J. Ángulo, C. Arrieta, S. Guzmán, H. Martinez, A. Parra, L. Sánchez, J. Hurtado, E. López
Prediction:
**1-1 draw** — Santa Fe's defensive setup + Tolima's shaky form = classic stalemate, but both crack one past their respective keepers.
Where to watch
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
Betano
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
RCN Nuestra Tele
Match facts
Stadium
Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campin
City
Bogota
Kickoff
12 Sep, 01:30 UTC
Competition
Categoría Primera A
Highlights & clips
Independiente Santa Fe
4-4-2 · 4-4-2
Deportes Tolima
1
A. Mosquera
6.7
25
E. Rodríguez
7.1
↑ 23'
15
I. Scarpeta
7.7
18
E. Olivera
6.5
↑ 46'
24
J. Angulo
6.6
14
L. Palacios
6.9
6
K. Toscano
6.8
7
J. Torres
6.7
↑ 46'
77
J. Obrian
6.6
↑ 82'
11
H. Rodallega
6.5
↑ 73'
9
F. Fagúndez
6.8
↑ 73'
1
N. Volpi
6.0
3
J. Ángulo
7.4
33
J. Mosquera
6.5
↑ 76'
2
A. Angulo
7.3
30
S. Barbosa
6.6
↑ 84'
15
S. A. A. Castillo
6.4
↑ 62'
14
H. Martinez
6.4
6
C. Trujillo
6.7
↑ 76'
18
K. Florez
6.6
7
J. Hurtado
6.6
↑ 62'
19
S. Joven
6.5
↑ 86'
Substitutes
12GW. Asprilla
3DV. Moreno↓ 46'6.9
4DM. Puerta↓ 23'6.6
16MD. Torres↓ 46'7.5
10MA. Zapata↓ 73'6.9
39MC. Portocarrero
19FNahuel Bustos↓ 73'7.4
17FM. Lovera↓ 82'6.9
Coach: Pablo Repetto
Substitutes
13GM. Ortega
5DJ. Mera↓ 76'6.7
20DJ. Hernández↓ 84'6.2
4DD. Pedrozo
32MS. Guzmán↓ 76'6.8
10ML. Sánchez↓ 86'6.2
28FE. López↓ 62'6.5
24FA. Parra↓ 62'6.3
29FN. Sánchez
Coach: Sebastián Oliveros
Top stats
44%Possession56%
0.91Expected goals (xG)0.24
13Total shots9
4Shots on target2
1Big chances0
5Corners5
Shots
5Shots off target6
4Blocked shots1
7Shots inside box2
6Shots outside box7
1Big chances scored0
0.08Goals prevented-0.62
Attack
18Touches in box18
53Final third entries56
3Offsides1
9Free kicks11
0Fouled in final third2
Passing
405Passes513
337Accurate passes446
23/53 (43%)Long balls34/55 (62%)
2/16 (13%)Crosses4/18 (22%)
15Throw-ins20
Duels
57Duels43
23/43 (53%)Ground duels20/43 (47%)
6/8 (75%)Aerial duels2/8 (25%)
5/7 (71%)Dribbles1/5 (20%)
6Dispossessed6
Defending
10Tackles8
80Tackles won75
8Interceptions3
28Clearances19
42Recoveries24
Discipline
11Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
11Goal kicks6
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 23 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 58% · 1.14 @ William Hill
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 78% · 1.24 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 30% · 2.33 @ Unibet
Who winsSanta Fe to win (DNB) 63% · 1.78 @ Novibet
BTTSBTTS: No 51% · 1.25 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.29 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.48 @ 1xBet
1X2Tolima to win 31% · 3.45 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 55% · 2.05 @ 10bet
1X2Santa Fe to win 39% · 2.80 @ 888Sport
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 2.50 @ 888Sport
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.38
Independiente Santa Fe
3.09
Draw
2.92
Deportes Tolima
Double Chanceconsensus
1.33
Independiente Santa Fe or Draw
1.33
Independiente Santa Fe or Deportes Tolima
1.57
Draw or Deportes Tolima
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.85
Yes
1.83
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.50
YES
1.48
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
3.10
YES
1.33
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.60
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.75
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.08
Over 0.50
7.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.39
Over 1.50
2.77
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.20
Over 2.50
1.61
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.22
Over 3.50
1.20
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
9.00
Over 4.50
1.05
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.75
Independiente Santa Fe
2.00
Deportes Tolima
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.51
Over 7.50
2.33
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.88
Over 8.50
1.79
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.40
Over 9.50
1.48
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
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