Atlético Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellín

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Atlético Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellín.

90+7'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

90+6'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

90'

6 minutes of added time.

90'

G. Mancilla

Attempt missed. G. Mancilla (Independiente Medellín), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

88'

E. Mena

Attempt blocked. E. Mena (Independiente Medellín), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

88'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

81'

Independiente Medellín

Offside, Independiente Medellín.

81'

N. Rodríguez

Attempt missed. N. Rodríguez (Atlético Nacional), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

79'

Independiente Medellín

Offside, Independiente Medellín.

77'

E. Cardona

Substitution, Atlético Nacional: A. Morelos comes on for E. Cardona.

77'

D. Moreno

Substitution, Independiente Medellín: D. Moreno comes on for D. Moreno.

77'

J. Rodríguez

Substitution, Atlético Nacional: N. Rodríguez comes on for J. Rodríguez.

77'

H. Loboa

Substitution, Independiente Medellín: K. Mantilla comes on for H. Loboa.

77'

A. Román

Substitution, Atlético Nacional: X. Rios comes on for A. Román.

76'

G. Mancilla

Attempt blocked. G. Mancilla (Independiente Medellín), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

73'

A. Sarmiento

Goal! Atlético Nacional 2-1 Independiente Medellín. A. Sarmiento (Atlético Nacional) scores, assisted by S. Velásquez.

69'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

67'

J. Rodríguez

Attempt blocked. J. Rodríguez (Atlético Nacional), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

65'

F. Fabra

Substitution, Independiente Medellín: G. Mancilla comes on for F. Fabra.

65'

Y. González

Substitution, Independiente Medellín: B. Perlaza comes on for Y. González.

63'

A. Román

Attempt missed. A. Román (Atlético Nacional), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

62'

N. Parra

Substitution, Atlético Nacional: C. Haydar comes on for N. Parra.

58'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

58'

C. Lucumi Gonzalez

Substitution, Independiente Medellín: J. Medina comes on for C. Lucumi Gonzalez.

56'

M. Uribe

Substitution, Atlético Nacional: A. Sarmiento comes on for M. Uribe.

53'

E. Cardona

Goal! Atlético Nacional 1-1 Independiente Medellín. E. Cardona (Atlético Nacional) scores, assisted by E. Cabrera.

51'

Y. González

Attempt blocked. Y. González (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.16.

50'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

49'

A. Román

Attempt saved. A. Román (Atlético Nacional), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

48'

A. Román

Attempt saved. A. Román (Atlético Nacional), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Atlético Nacional 0-1 Independiente Medellín.

45+3'

Atlético Nacional

Offside, Atlético Nacional.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

45'

D. Moreno

Yellow card for D. Moreno (Independiente Medellín) for foul.

43'

J. E. Montaño

Attempt missed. J. E. Montaño (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.03.

42'

Atlético Nacional

Corner, Atlético Nacional.

41'

L. Escorcia

Yellow card for L. Escorcia (Independiente Medellín) for foul.

39'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

39'

H. Loboa

Attempt saved. H. Loboa (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

39'

C. Lucumi Gonzalez

Attempt blocked. C. Lucumi Gonzalez (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

35'

Independiente Medellín

Offside, Independiente Medellín.

33'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

33'

C. Lucumi Gonzalez

Attempt blocked. C. Lucumi Gonzalez (Independiente Medellín), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

32'

E. Cardona

Yellow card for E. Cardona (Atlético Nacional) for off the ball foul.

29'

A. Simarra

Goal! Atlético Nacional 0-1 Independiente Medellín. A. Simarra (Independiente Medellín) scores, assisted by C. Lucumi Gonzalez.

24'

A. Martegani

Attempt blocked. A. Martegani (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

23'

Independiente Medellín

Corner, Independiente Medellín.

23'

A. Martegani

Attempt saved. A. Martegani (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

22'

J. E. Montaño

Attempt missed. J. E. Montaño (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

20'

H. Loboa

Yellow card for H. Loboa (Independiente Medellín) for foul.

16'

Atlético Nacional

Offside, Atlético Nacional.

12'

Independiente Medellín

Offside, Independiente Medellín.

7'

Atlético Nacional

Corner, Atlético Nacional.

7'

S. Velásquez

Attempt saved. S. Velásquez (Atlético Nacional), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

4'

J. E. Montaño

Attempt blocked. J. E. Montaño (Independiente Medellín), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

1'

Kick-off: Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín.

Where the money is

175745 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 107530 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

53.6%

-45.4 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

24.3%

+24.2 vs price

Draw 22.0 · implied 4.5%

22.1%

+17.6 vs price

Half time 2 EUR

Away 5.1 · implied 19.6%

100.0%

+80.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 35242 EUR · live

Under 2.12 · implied 47.2%

62.3%

+15.1 vs price

Over 1.89 · implied 52.9%

37.7%

-15.2 vs price

9 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

20' H. Loboa · Foul

29' ⚽ A. Simarra · assist C. Lucumi Gonzalez0–1

32' E. Cardona · Off the ball foul

41' L. Escorcia · Foul

Half-time · 0–1

45' D. Moreno · Foul

53' ⚽ E. Cardona · assist E. Cabrera1–1

56' 🔁 A. Sarmiento ◂ M. Uribe

58' 🔁 J. Medina ◂ C. Lucumi Gonzalez

62' 🔁 C. Haydar ◂ N. Parra

65' 🔁 B. Perlaza ◂ Y. González

65' 🔁 G. Mancilla ◂ F. Fabra

73' ⚽ A. Sarmiento · assist S. Velásquez2–1

77' 🔁 X. Rios ◂ A. Román

77' 🔁 K. Mantilla ◂ H. Loboa

77' 🔁 N. Rodríguez ◂ J. Rodríguez

77' 🔁 D. Moreno ◂ D. Moreno

77' 🔁 A. Morelos ◂ E. Cardona

Full-time · 2–1

Coaches

Lucas González

Luis Perea

Recent form

Atlético Nacional

WHDeportivo Pasto3-0

LACúcuta Deportivo0-1

WABoyacá Chicó FC4-1

WHIndependiente Medellín3-2

DHDeportes Tolima0-0

Independiente Medellín

LHOnce Caldas0-2

LAAtlético Nacional2-3

WAAmérica de Cali2-1

LHIndependiente Santa Fe0-1

DHMillonarios2-2

About this match

**Atlético Nacional bring the derby heat to the Atanasio**, and they're rolling — three wins in their last five while Medellín has stumbled to just one win in the same stretch. Local bragging rights on the line in a Medellín classic. 🔴

Nacional's form is crisp: 4-1 over Boyacá, 3-0 over Pasto. Medellín? Got battered 2-0 by Once Caldas at home last time out. The H2H favors Nacional massively (15 wins to 6 over 33 meetings), and they won the reverse fixture 3-2 away. This is shaping up as a one-way traffic jam.

Key storylines:

- **Atlético Nacional's attack** (led by **C. Arango** and **J. Escorcia**) has found rhythm; Medellín's defense looks vulnerable after consecutive heavy defeats
- **Independiente Medellín** desperate for a spark — only one league win in five is a crisis vibe, and a derby loss could sink morale further
- Home advantage at the Atanasio usually matters, but Nacional's momentum might trump Medellín's crowd help

Expected lineups:

- **Atlético Nacional**: F. Armani, N. Parra, C. Haydar, A. Román, M. Casco, E. Cabrera, J. Zapata, J. Rosa, F. Marin, J. Escorcia, C. Arango
- **Independiente Medellín**: E. Chaux, F. Fabra, L. Escorcia, J. Varela, H. Palacios, A. Martegani, D. Moreno, J. E. Montaño, J. Quintero, E. Mena, Y. González

Prediction:

**Atlético Nacional 2–0 Independiente Medellín** — Nacional's edge in form and head-to-head is too steep. Medellín can't catch a break right now. 💛

Where to watch

RCN Nuestra Tele

Match facts

Stadium

Estadio Atanasio Girardot

City

Medellin

Referee

Jonnathan Ortiz

5.05 yellows/match · 19 matches

Kickoff

25 Oct, 23:10 UTC

Competition

Categoría Primera A

Highlights & clips

Atlético Nacional 4-4-2 · 4-4-2 Independiente Medellín

34 F. Armani 7.0 31 X. Rios 6.6 ↑ 77' 4 C. Haydar 7.1 ↑ 62' 16 W. Tesillo 6.6 33 S. Velásquez 7.4 22 E. Cabrera 7.0 21 J. Campuzano 7.0 29 A. Sarmiento 7.5 ↑ 56' 26 F. Marin 7.0 13 N. Rodríguez 6.5 ↑ 77' 9 A. Morelos 6.4 ↑ 77' 1 S. Ichazo 6.9 26 E. Mena 6.8 39 L. Escorcia 6.2 19 A. Simarra 6.7 14 B. Perlaza 6.2 ↑ 65' 17 G. Mancilla 6.4 ↑ 65' 4 K. Mantilla 6.8 ↑ 77' 31 D. Moreno 6.6 ↑ 77' 20 J. E. Montaño 7.0 21 A. Martegani 6.7 9 J. Medina 6.7 ↑ 58'

Substitutes

25GL. Marquinez 3DN. Parra↓ 62'7.1 6DA. Román↓ 77'6.6 20DM. Casco 10ME. Cardona↓ 77'7.5 23MJ. Rodríguez↓ 77'7.0 8MM. Uribe↓ 56'6.8 80MJ. Zapata 19MJ. M. Rengifo

Coach: Lucas González

Substitutes

25GE. Chaux 18DF. Fabra↓ 65'7.2 5DJ. Varela 11MY. González↓ 65'6.5 16MH. Loboa↓ 77'6.1 34MK. Klinger 10MD. Cataño 32FC. Lucumi Gonzalez↓ 58'7.3

Coach: Luis Perea

Top stats

59%Possession41%

1.69Expected goals (xG)1.58

8Total shots13

5Shots on target3

2Big chances3

3Corners8

Shots

2Shots off target3

1Blocked shots7

5Shots inside box8

3Shots outside box5

2Big chances scored1

0Big chances missed2

0.22Goals prevented0.47

Attack

9Touches in box25

47Final third entries53

2Offsides4

15Free kicks11

3Fouled in final third1

Passing

421Passes282

351Accurate passes220

31/53 (58%)Long balls26/57 (46%)

1/9 (11%)Crosses0/14 (0%)

16Throw-ins20

Duels

55Duels45

34/60 (57%)Ground duels26/60 (43%)

3/7 (43%)Aerial duels4/7 (57%)

1/8 (13%)Dribbles2/13 (15%)

6Dispossessed7

Defending

18Tackles13

72Tackles won92

7Interceptions9

18Clearances6

33Recoveries35

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

8Goal kicks5

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 23 bookmakers

Atl. Nacional 53%

25%

Ind. Medellín 22%

Who winsAtl. Nacional to win (DNB) 81% · 1.35 @ 10bet

1X2Atl. Nacional to win 53% · 2.15 @ William Hill

CornersOver 8.5 corners 61% · 1.50 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 54% · 4.00 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 3.25 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 1.95 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 25% · 2.61 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.42 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.51 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.88 @ Pinnacle

1X2Ind. Medellín to win 22% · 4.36 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.75

Atlético Nacional

3.70

Draw

4.10

Independiente Medellín

Double Chanceconsensus

1.22

Atlético Nacional or Draw

1.23

Atlético Nacional or Independiente Medellín

1.95

Draw or Independiente Medellín

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.67

Yes

2.10

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

11.90

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.22

Over 1.50

4.03

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.73

Over 2.50

2.07

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.88

Over 3.50

1.38

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.42

Over 4.50

1.12

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.33

Atlético Nacional

3.00

Independiente Medellín

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.24

Over 7.50

3.33

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.50

Over 8.50

2.38

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.85

Over 9.50

1.86

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.34

Over 10.50

1.51

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.14

Over 11.50

1.27

Under 11.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.30

Atlético Nacional

2.27

Draw

4.37

Independiente Medellín

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.10

Atlético Nacional

2.60

Draw

4.00

Independiente Medellín

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Atlético Nacional to avoid defeat

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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