UD Oliveirense 2-1 CD Mafra: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. UD Oliveirense 2-1 CD Mafra.

90+3'

A. Ngom

Yellow card for A. Ngom (CD Mafra).

90+2'

R. Moreira

Attempt saved. R. Moreira (CD Mafra), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.26.

90'

J. Daniel

Substitution, UD Oliveirense: D. Sancho comes on for J. Daniel.

90'

Y. Rodríguez

Substitution, UD Oliveirense: J. Felix comes on for Y. Rodríguez.

89'

J. Sérgio

Attempt blocked. J. Sérgio (UD Oliveirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.34.

89'

L. Neves

Attempt saved. L. Neves (CD Mafra), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.08.

84'

M. Niang

Attempt missed. M. Niang (CD Mafra), header. xG 0.11.

81'

G. Cardoso

Substitution, CD Mafra: A. P. J. Deme comes on for G. Cardoso.

74'

K. Félix

Substitution, UD Oliveirense: K. Onohara comes on for K. Félix.

74'

R. Rei

Substitution, UD Oliveirense: J. Sérgio comes on for R. Rei.

71'

B. Sambú

Goal! UD Oliveirense 2-1 CD Mafra. B. Sambú (CD Mafra) scores.

70'

A. Ngom

Attempt blocked. A. Ngom (CD Mafra), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

67'

M. Camara

Substitution, CD Mafra: G. Zakpa comes on for M. Camara.

67'

R. Matos

Substitution, CD Mafra: L. Neves comes on for R. Matos.

64'

J. Tavares

Substitution, UD Oliveirense: T. Fonseca comes on for J. Tavares.

63'

A. Ngom

Attempt blocked. A. Ngom (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

61'

R. Moreira

Attempt missed. R. Moreira (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

57'

J. Ferreira

Substitution, CD Mafra: R. Moreira comes on for J. Ferreira.

57'

K. Alves

Substitution, CD Mafra: A. Ngom comes on for K. Alves.

55'

A. Ba

Attempt blocked. A. Ba (CD Mafra), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.

52'

J. Daniel

Goal! UD Oliveirense 2-0 CD Mafra. J. Daniel (UD Oliveirense) converts the penalty.

49'

R. Rei

Attempt saved. R. Rei (UD Oliveirense), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

48'

L. Silva

Attempt blocked. L. Silva (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

47'

J. Daniel

Attempt missed. J. Daniel (UD Oliveirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. UD Oliveirense 1-0 CD Mafra.

42'

V. Braga

Attempt saved. V. Braga (UD Oliveirense), left-footed shot. xG 0.21.

40'

Unknown

Yellow card for Unknown (CD Mafra).

34'

L. Bastos

Attempt blocked. L. Bastos (UD Oliveirense), left-footed shot. xG 0.00.

29'

K. Félix

Goal! UD Oliveirense 1-0 CD Mafra. K. Félix (UD Oliveirense) scores, assisted by Y. Rodríguez.

25'

F. Ferreira

Attempt blocked. F. Ferreira (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.19.

21'

J. Tavares

Attempt missed. J. Tavares (UD Oliveirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

20'

M. Camara

Attempt blocked. M. Camara (CD Mafra), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.30.

17'

L. Silva

Off the woodwork! L. Silva (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

13'

J. Tavares

Attempt missed. J. Tavares (UD Oliveirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

11'

J. Daniel

Attempt missed. J. Daniel (UD Oliveirense), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

9'

M. Niang

Attempt missed. M. Niang (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.14.

8'

M. Camara

Attempt missed. M. Camara (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

7'

J. Daniel

Attempt missed. J. Daniel (UD Oliveirense), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

1'

Kick-off: UD Oliveirense vs CD Mafra.

Where the money is

8934 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 3267 EUR · live

Home 1.06 · implied 94.3%

73.5%

-20.8 vs price

Away 240.0 · implied 0.4%

23.1%

+22.7 vs price

Draw 11.5 · implied 8.7%

3.9%

-4.8 vs price

Half time 65 EUR · live

Draw 1.74 · implied 57.5%

62.6%

+5.1 vs price

Home 4.1 · implied 24.4%

35.1%

+10.7 vs price

Away

0.0%

Over/Under 2.5 goals 881 EUR · live

Over 1.76 · implied 56.8%

57.9%

+1.1 vs price

Under 2.38 · implied 42.0%

42.0%

-0.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 636 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

98.1%

0.0 vs price

Over 36.0 · implied 2.8%

1.7%

-1.0 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Match events

29' ⚽ K. Félix · assist Y. Rodríguez1–0

40' Unknown

Half-time · 1–0

52' ⚽ J. Daniel (pen)2–0

57' 🔁 A. Ngom ◂ K. Alves

57' 🔁 R. Moreira ◂ J. Ferreira

64' 🔁 T. Fonseca ◂ J. Tavares

67' 🔁 L. Neves ◂ R. Matos

67' 🔁 G. Zakpa ◂ M. Camara

71' ⚽ B. Sambú2–1

74' 🔁 J. Sérgio ◂ R. Rei

74' 🔁 K. Onohara ◂ K. Félix

81' 🔁 A. P. J. Deme ◂ G. Cardoso

Full-time · 2–1

90' 🔁 J. Felix ◂ Y. Rodríguez

90' 🔁 D. Sancho ◂ J. Daniel

90'⁺³ A. Ngom

Coaches

Tim Sparv

Recent form

UD Oliveirense

LAAtletico CP1-3

WHSC Penalva do Castelo4-0

WHGD Vitória Sernache3-2

DAUD Santarém1-1

DHLouletano DC0-0

CD Mafra

WHSC Covilhã1-0

WAAt. Malveira3-2

LALusitano Ginásio Clube1-2

DAAtletico CP1-1

WHGD Vitória Sernache5-0

About this match

**Oliveirense host Mafra in a Liga 3 showdown where the home side's firepower could exploit a vulnerable away defence.** Both teams are rolling, but the underlying edge belongs to the hosts here 🔥

Oliveirense have rattled off two big wins (4-0, 3-2) and only stumbled against Atlético CP; Mafra's three wins look solid but they've leaked goals in losses and draws alike. The H2H strongly favors Oliveirense (5 wins to Mafra's 3 in 14 meetings), and home advantage on Saturday morning only sweetens that tilt.

Key storylines:

- **Oliveirense's attack** (Y. Rodríguez, K. Félix, J. Tavares) has been prolific at home and faces a Mafra back line that's given up chances in recent away trips
- **Mafra's shape in midfield** — B. Sambú and L. Neves will need to control the tempo and protect M. Camara and G. Cardoso from Oliveirense's direct play
- **Set pieces and transitions** could swing it; both teams have shown vulnerability to quick shifts

Expected lineups:

- **UD Oliveirense**: R. Ribeiro, L. Bastos, V. Santos, S. Martins, Y. Rodríguez, K. Félix, J. Tavares
- **CD Mafra**: P. Silva, J. Ferreira, M. Camara, G. Cardoso, M. Niang, Y. Maïga, R. Matos

Prediction:

**Oliveirense 2–1 Mafra.** Home form, proven attack, and historical edge point to a tight but lean Oliveirense win.

Where to watch

Betano

Match facts

Kickoff

12 Sep, 10:00 UTC

Competition

Liga 3

UD Oliveirense 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1 CD Mafra

33 U. Pérez 55 L. Bastos 24 G. Loureiro 14 S. Martins 13 V. Santos 8 V. Braga 4 J. Felix ↑ 90' 23 J. Sérgio ↑ 74' 80 K. Onohara ↑ 74' 78 D. Sancho ↑ 90' 95 T. Fonseca ↑ 64' 33 P. Silva 22 F. Ferreira 42 A. Ngom ↑ 57' 20 A. P. J. Deme ↑ 81' 8 L. Neves ↑ 67' 11 L. Silva 90 R. Moreira ↑ 57' 37 A. Ba 46 B. Sambú ⚽1 18 G. Zakpa ↑ 67' 9 M. Niang

Substitutes

1GR. Dabo 22MR. Rei↓ 74' 6MJ. Daniel↓ 90' 11MS. Matsunaga 16MR. Pinho 10FJ. Tavares↓ 64' 70FK. Félix↓ 74' 7FY. Rodríguez↓ 90' 27FM. Monteiro

Substitutes

1GF. Lemos 66DJ. Ferreira↓ 57' 3DK. Alves↓ 57' 2DM. Camara↓ 67' 5DG. Cardoso↓ 81' 13DC. Raposo 76DL. Ventura 7FR. Matos↓ 67' 21FE. Fati

Coach: Tim Sparv

Top stats

47%Possession53%

1.72Expected goals (xG)1.42

4Shots on target2

1Corners6

Shots

6Shots off target5

Attack

2Offsides2

12Free kicks20

Passing

20Throw-ins27

Discipline

18Fouls10

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

13Goal kicks8

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 22 bookmakers

Oliveirense 31%

29%

Mafra 40%

Who winsMafra to win (DNB) 56% · 1.65 @ Unibet

1X2Mafra to win 40% · 2.70 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 56% · 1.12 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 9.5 corners 51%

CornersOver 8.5 corners 63%

1X2Draw 29% · 2.29 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 75% · 1.22 @ betfair

BTTSBoth teams to score 50% · 3.42 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 69% · 2.26 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60%

1X2Oliveirense to win 31% · 3.50 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.00

UD Oliveirense

3.05

Draw

2.25

CD Mafra

Double Chanceconsensus

1.50

UD Oliveirense or Draw

1.27

UD Oliveirense or CD Mafra

1.33

Draw or CD Mafra

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.83

Yes

1.85

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

8.20

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.35

Over 1.50

3.05

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.15

Over 2.50

1.65

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.89

Over 3.50

1.21

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

8.25

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.15

UD Oliveirense

1.61

CD Mafra

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

3.55

UD Oliveirense

2.02

Draw

2.88

CD Mafra

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

3.45

UD Oliveirense

2.25

Draw

2.64

CD Mafra

Both Teams to Score (1st Half)consensus

4.60

Yes

1.14

No

Both Teams to Score (2nd Half)consensus

3.42

Yes

1.25

No

Total Goals (1st Half) 0.50consensus

1.40

Over 0.50

2.67

Under 0.50

Total Goals (1st Half) 1.50consensus

3.02

Over 1.50

1.34

Under 1.50

Total Goals (1st Half) 2.50consensus

8.00

Over 2.50

1.06

Under 2.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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