CD Mafra 2-2 C.F. Os Belenenses: Stats & xG – Oct 11, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. CD Mafra 2-2 C.F. Os Belenenses.

83'

L. Neves

Goal! CD Mafra 2-2 C.F. Os Belenenses. L. Neves (CD Mafra) scores.

81'

L. Neves

Attempt blocked. L. Neves (CD Mafra), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.06.

80'

E. Barros

Substitution, C.F. Os Belenenses: A. Pinto comes on for E. Barros.

79'

A. Ba

Substitution, CD Mafra: G. Zakpa comes on for A. Ba.

78'

R. Matos

Substitution, CD Mafra: L. Neves comes on for R. Matos.

74'

A. Afonso

Substitution, C.F. Os Belenenses: D. Maria comes on for A. Afonso.

72'

M. Niang

Goal! CD Mafra 1-2 C.F. Os Belenenses. M. Niang (CD Mafra) scores.

70'

D. Monteiro

Attempt blocked. D. Monteiro (C.F. Os Belenenses), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

68'

Bruninho

Attempt blocked. Bruninho (C.F. Os Belenenses), left-footed shot. xG 0.00.

68'

C. Alfandega

Attempt missed. C. Alfandega (C.F. Os Belenenses), header from a corner. xG 0.26.

68'

D. Leitão

Substitution, C.F. Os Belenenses: T. Moninhas comes on for D. Leitão.

64'

E. Barros

Attempt saved. E. Barros (C.F. Os Belenenses), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

64'

R. Matos

Attempt blocked. R. Matos (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

60'

C. Raposo

Substitution, CD Mafra: F. Ferreira comes on for C. Raposo.

59'

J. Silva

Substitution, CD Mafra: J. Ferreira comes on for J. Silva.

59'

K. Alves

Substitution, CD Mafra: A. Ngom comes on for K. Alves.

57'

C. Raposo

Attempt missed. C. Raposo (CD Mafra), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.01.

53'

C. Alfandega

Goal! CD Mafra 0-2 C.F. Os Belenenses. C. Alfandega (C.F. Os Belenenses) scores.

52'

L. Silva

Attempt blocked. L. Silva (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

52'

R. Matos

Attempt missed. R. Matos (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

46'

A. Afonso

Attempt blocked. A. Afonso (C.F. Os Belenenses), right-footed shot. xG 0.20.

46'

E. Souiza

Substitution, C.F. Os Belenenses: C. Alfandega comes on for E. Souiza.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. CD Mafra 0-1 C.F. Os Belenenses.

43'

L. Silva

Attempt saved. L. Silva (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

35'

A. Ba

Attempt saved. A. Ba (CD Mafra), header. xG 0.09.

31'

G. Cardoso

Attempt blocked. G. Cardoso (CD Mafra), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.22.

31'

B. Sambú

Attempt missed. B. Sambú (CD Mafra), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

29'

M. Niang

Attempt missed. M. Niang (CD Mafra), header. xG 0.21.

27'

Bruninho

Attempt missed. Bruninho (C.F. Os Belenenses), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

23'

J. Silva

Attempt missed. J. Silva (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

22'

Bruninho

Attempt saved. Bruninho (C.F. Os Belenenses), right-footed shot. xG 0.31.

20'

L. Silva

Attempt saved. L. Silva (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

20'

G. Cardoso

Attempt blocked. G. Cardoso (CD Mafra), header from a corner. xG 0.21.

14'

B. Sambú

Attempt blocked. B. Sambú (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

14'

M. Niang

Attempt blocked. M. Niang (CD Mafra), header from a corner. xG 0.40.

12'

M. Niang

Attempt blocked. M. Niang (CD Mafra), left-footed shot. xG 0.18.

8'

A. Ba

Attempt blocked. A. Ba (CD Mafra), right-footed shot. xG 0.17.

8'

M. Niang

Attempt missed. M. Niang (CD Mafra), header from a corner. xG 0.33.

1'

D. Leitão

Goal! CD Mafra 0-1 C.F. Os Belenenses. D. Leitão (C.F. Os Belenenses) scores.

1'

Kick-off: CD Mafra vs C.F. Os Belenenses.

Where the money is

9446 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 3319 EUR · live

Draw 1.09 · implied 91.7%

63.6%

-28.2 vs price

Away 15.0 · implied 6.7%

36.4%

+29.7 vs price

Home 9.2 · implied 10.9%

16.1%

+5.2 vs price

Half time 156 EUR · live

Away 1.26 · implied 79.4%

98.3%

+18.9 vs price

Home 23.0 · implied 4.3%

1.3%

-3.1 vs price

Draw

0.0%

Over/Under 2.5 goals 2103 EUR · live

Over 1.76 · implied 56.8%

82.2%

+25.4 vs price

Under 2.22 · implied 45.0%

17.8%

-27.3 vs price

9 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Match events

1' ⚽ D. Leitão0–1

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 C. Alfandega ◂ E. Souiza

53' ⚽ C. Alfandega0–2

59' 🔁 A. Ngom ◂ K. Alves

59' 🔁 J. Ferreira ◂ J. Silva

60' 🔁 F. Ferreira ◂ C. Raposo

68' 🔁 T. Moninhas ◂ D. Leitão

72' ⚽ M. Niang1–2

74' 🔁 D. Maria ◂ A. Afonso

78' 🔁 L. Neves ◂ R. Matos

79' 🔁 G. Zakpa ◂ A. Ba

80' 🔁 A. Pinto ◂ E. Barros

83' ⚽ L. Neves2–2

Full-time · 2–2

Coaches

Tim Sparv

Gonçalo Jardim Brandão

Recent form

CD Mafra

DHFC Tirsense2-2

LAUD Oliveirense1-2

WHSC Covilhã1-0

WAAt. Malveira3-2

LALusitano Ginásio Clube1-2

C.F. Os Belenenses

WASC Beira-Mar2-0

WHAtletico CP1-0

WAGD Vitória Sernache3-1

WALusitano Ginásio Clube2-1

WHUD Santarém5-0

About this match

**Belenenses rolling up to Mafra on a five-game winning streak — this is a clash between Liga 3's hottest form and a host side trying to find consistency.** 🔥

Mafra's been all over the place lately (2W-1D-2L), while Os Belenenses just keeps winning and winning. The head-to-head leans Belenenses' way too, with 3 wins to Mafra's 0 in their last six meetings.

Key storylines:

- **C.F. Os Belenenses' perfect run** continues against a Mafra side that's struggled to string results together
- **Home advantage for Mafra** hasn't been a guaranteed shield — they drew 2-2 at home to Tirsense recently and need to tighten up
- **Belenenses' defensive solidity** (back-to-back clean sheets vs Beira-Mar and Atletico CP) will be tested by Mafra's attacking options

Expected lineups:

- **CD Mafra**: P. Silva, J. Ferreira, G. Cardoso, M. Camara, F. Ferreira, B. Sambú, Y. Maïga, M. Niang, L. Neves, L. Silva, R. Matos
- **C.F. Os Belenenses**: G. Oliveira, Bruninho, N. Tomás, César, D. Monteiro, D. Leitão, T. Morgado, E. Barros, A. Afonso, D. Ferreira, C. Alfandega

Prediction:

**0-2 to Belenenses.** They've got all the momentum and Mafra's form is too patchy — visitors' edge here is real.

Where to watch

Canal 11

Match facts

Kickoff

11 Oct, 10:00 UTC

Competition

Liga 3

Highlights & clips

CD Mafra 3-4-3 · 4-2-3-1 C.F. Os Belenenses

33 P. Silva 2 M. Camara 66 J. Ferreira ↑ 59' 5 G. Cardoso 22 F. Ferreira ↑ 60' 46 B. Sambú 18 G. Zakpa ↑ 79' 11 L. Silva 42 A. Ngom ↑ 59' 9 M. Niang ⚽1 8 L. Neves ↑ 78' 99 G. Oliveira 58 D. Monteiro 66 César 4 N. Tomás 15 J. Lucas 81 D. Maria ↑ 74' 21 T. Morgado 39 A. Pinto ↑ 80' 20 T. Moninhas ↑ 68' 23 Bruninho 33 C. Alfandega ↑ 46'

Substitutes

1GF. Lemos 3DK. Alves↓ 59' 15DJ. Silva↓ 59' 13DC. Raposo↓ 60' 37MA. Ba↓ 79' 6MY. Maïga 7FR. Matos↓ 78' 90FR. Moreira 17A. Baldé 66J. Pedro

Coach: Tim Sparv

Substitutes

95GD. Riechelmann 17MD. Leitão↓ 68' 14MA. Afonso↓ 74' 96MJ. Herrera 9FE. Souiza↓ 46' 27FE. Barros↓ 80' 9FJ. Oliveira 85FD. Varela

Coach: Gonçalo Jardim Brandão

Top stats

52%Possession48%

2.49Expected goals (xG)1.28

20Total shots9

5Shots on target4

10Corners1

Shots

6Shots off target2

9Blocked shots3

10Shots inside box6

10Shots outside box3

0Hit woodwork0

Attack

2Offsides3

1Free kicks1

Passing

450Passes430

360Accurate passes349

24/53 (45%)Long balls38/68 (55%)

10/30 (33%)Crosses3/8 (37%)

20Throw-ins21

Duels

51Duels48

59/118 (50%)Ground duels58/117 (50%)

26/46 (57%)Aerial duels21/47 (45%)

11/17 (65%)Dribbles6/12 (50%)

7Dispossessed8

Defending

1Tackles0

12Interceptions16

18Clearances39

Discipline

14Fouls10

0Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

9Goal kicks13

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 12 bookmakers

Mafra 31%

28%

Belenenses 41%

Who winsBelenenses to win (DNB) 65% · 1.70 @ Unibet

1X2Belenenses to win 41% · 2.87 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 54% · 1.75 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 28% · 2.10 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 59%

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73%

BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 1.80 @ Betway

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53%

1X2Mafra to win 31% · 3.50 @ Bet365

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.87

CD Mafra

3.20

Draw

2.20

C.F. Os Belenenses

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.76

Yes

1.91

No

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.05

Over 2.50

1.75

Under 2.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.08

CD Mafra

1.65

C.F. Os Belenenses

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

3.50

CD Mafra

2.10

Draw

2.87

C.F. Os Belenenses

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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