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Mattia Croci-Torti
FC Lugano
Dukagjini
FC Lugano
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2
Dukagjini
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Player of the match
Match events
21'
M. Zanotti · Argument
31'
⚽
R. Steffen · assist K. Behrens1–0
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
G. Elezaj ◂ I. Zulfiu
49'
E. Basriu · Foul
69'
🔁
D. Moncada ◂ E. Alioski
69'
🔁
M. Maliqi ◂ A. Merlaku
80'
🔁
J. Bichsel ◂ K. Behrens
80'
🔁
A. Kendouci ◂ D. Dos Santos
80'
G. Elezaj · Foul
81'
🔁
A. Rexhaj ◂ K. Gashi
88'
A. Rexhaj · Foul
89'
🔁
Arbër ◂ J. Stevenson
89'
🔁
E. Pihlstrom ◂ Y. Cimignani
Full-time · 1–0
-5'
K. Behrens · Argument
Coaches
Mattia Croci-TortiArsim Thaqi 
Recent form
FC LuganoLHFC Vaduz1-2
WH1. FC Heidenheim1-0
WAFC Memmingen4-0
DHFC Rapperswil-Jona1-1
WHNeuchâtel Xamax2-1
DukagjiniLHCSM Slatina0-2
LABeitar Jerusalem0-1
DALokomotiv Sofia3-3
WANK Veres Rivne1-0
Where to watch
Betano
Match facts
Stadium
Cornaredo
City
Lugano
Referee
Viktor Shimusik
Kickoff
23 Jul, 18:30 UTC
Competition
Conference League
FC Lugano
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2
Dukagjini
16
D. von Ballmoos
7.0
46
M. Zanotti
7.1
17
L. Mai
8.0
6
A. Papadopoulos
7.2
24
E. Pihlstrom
↑ 89'
25
U. Bislimi
8.2
8
A. Grgić
8.1
30
D. Moncada
6.7
↑ 69'
11
R. Steffen
8.6
18
J. Bichsel
6.8
↑ 80'
14
A. Kendouci
6.9
↑ 80'
1
E. Lekaj
6.8
77
V. Hugo
7.9
5
E. Basriu
7.3
14
E. Sinani
7.8
44
T. Bardhoku
6.7
7
G. Elezaj
6.2
↑ 46'
47
D. Isufi
6.5
6
A. Rexhaj
6.2
↑ 81'
98
M. Maliqi
6.1
↑ 69'
17
M. Pefqeli
7.4
22
Arbër
↑ 89'
Substitutes
28GF. Gebhardt
39GA. Ndiaye
7DE. Alioski↓ 69'7.2
4DD. Kelvin
21MY. Cimignani↓ 89'7.1
27MD. Dos Santos↓ 80'6.6
22MB. Castro
23MG. Ajdin
91FK. Behrens↓ 80'7.0
32FN. Puddu
Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti
Top stats
72%Possession28%
2.99Expected goals (xG, estimated)1.03
24Total shots12
7Shots on target3
7Big chances0
7Corners3
Shots
11Shots off target7
6Blocked shots2
20Shots inside box3
4Shots outside box9
1Hit woodwork1
1Big chances scored0
6Big chances missed0
Attack
39Touches in box6
72Final third entries26
5Offsides0
12Free kicks17
4Fouled in final third1
Passing
621Passes241
564Accurate passes178
34/41 (83%)Long balls16/43 (37%)
9/35 (26%)Crosses1/9 (11%)
12Throw-ins9
Duels
59Duels40
37/63 (59%)Ground duels26/63 (41%)
19/32 (59%)Aerial duels12/31 (39%)
7/10 (70%)Dribbles3/11 (27%)
3Dispossessed11
Defending
19Tackles6
58Tackles won67
6Interceptions12
16Clearances32
45Recoveries40
Discipline
17Fouls12
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
8Goal kicks10
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers
1X2Lugano to win 80% · 1.19 @ Novibet
Who winsLugano to win (DNB) 91% · 1.04 @ Bet365
BTTSBTTS: No 62% · 1.66 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 1.59 @ Novibet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.19 @ Novibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.39 @ Novibet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.67 @ Novibet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 55% · 1.70 @ 888Sport
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.68 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 14% · 7.00 @ Betway
1X2Dukagjini to win 6% · 24.69 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.15
FC Lugano ▼
6.37
Draw ▲
16.59
Dukagjini ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.02
FC Lugano or Draw ▼
1.10
FC Lugano or Dukagjini ▲
4.38
Draw or Dukagjini ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.30
Yes ▼
1.55
No ▲
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50 ▼
14.15
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.18
Over 1.50 ▼
4.65
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.59
Over 2.50 ▼
2.30
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.45
Over 3.50 ▲
1.53
Under 3.50 ▲
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.15
Over 4.50 ▲
1.22
Under 4.50 ▼
Draw No Betconsensus
1.02
FC Lugano ▼
11.63
Dukagjini ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.03
Over 4.50
13.00
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.08
Over 5.50
6.50
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.19
Over 6.50 ▼
4.13
Under 6.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.39
Over 7.50 ▲
2.77
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.68
Over 8.50 ▲
2.04
Under 8.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.12
Over 9.50 ▲
1.63
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.89
Over 10.50 ▲
1.35
Under 10.50 ▼
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
Every market recommended rows highlighted
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano to win1X2 | 80% | 80% | 1.16 | Overpriced | high |
| Lugano to win (DNB)Who wins | 91% | 91% | 1.03 | Overpriced | high |
| BTTS: NoBTTS | 62% | 62% | 1.49 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 2.5 goalsGoals | 60% | 60% | 1.55 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 80% | 80% | 1.17 | Overpriced | high |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 68% | 68% | 1.36 | Overpriced | medium |
| Under 9.5 cornersCorners | 56% | 56% | 1.64 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 55% | 55% | 1.67 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 61% | 61% | 1.52 | Overpriced | medium |
| Draw1X2 | 14% | 14% | 6.68 | Overpriced | low |
| Dukagjini to win1X2 | 6% | 6% | 15.6 | Overpriced | low |
Probability vs league average
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 72% | +8% | Yes |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% | +10% | Yes |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 29% | +10% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 49% | -11% | No |
| Home win | 80% | 46% | +34% | Yes |
| Draw | 14% | 25% | -11% | No |
| Away win | 6% | 30% | -24% | No |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
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