Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Al-Ittihad's rolling hot — Al-Fayha needs to park the bus and hope for scraps.** Three wins in five matches vs. inconsistent visitors makes this a mismatch on paper. 📊
Al-Ittihad haven't dropped a game (3W 2D) with **S. Bergwijn** and **Y. En-Nesyri** clicking in attack, while **Al-Fayha** sit wobblier at 1W 2D 2L and just drew with mid-table sides. The home dominance and head-to-head edge (9 wins in 16) tells you everything.
Key storylines:
- **Al-Ittihad's attacking depth** — **H. Aouar**, **M. Diaby**, and **En-Nesyri** form a lethal trio; Al-Fayha's back line will be under siege all night
- **Al-Fayha's form fragility** — draws with bottom-half teams and losses to Abha spell trouble against elite opposition 🔴
- **Midfield control** — **H. Kadesh** and **D. Lopy** anchor the hosts; if they dominate, this gets ugly fast
Expected lineups:
- **Al-Ittihad**: P. Rajković, A. Faris, D. Pereira, J. Simić, A. Al-Julaydan, H. Kadesh, D. Lopy, S. Bergwijn, H. Aouar, M. Diaby, Y. En-Nesyri
- **Al-Fayha**: O. Mosquera, A. Bamasud, M. Al-Rashidi, P. Oliveira, M. A. Baqawi, A. A. Hussain, A. Semedo, H. Moura, F. Sakala, Lázaro, R. Enad
Prediction:
**Al-Ittihad 2–0 Al-Fayha.** Slight favorite in a one-sided affair; visitors lack the creativity to threaten on the break.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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