Al-Hilal 3-2 Al-Ittihad: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 10, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Al-Hilal 3-2 Al-Ittihad.

90+6'

P. Rajković

Yellow card for P. Rajković (Al-Ittihad) for argument.

90+3'

Al-Ittihad

Corner, Al-Ittihad.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

90'

H. Altambakti

Substitution, Al-Hilal: A. Lajami comes on for H. Altambakti.

89'

S. Bergwijn

Goal! Al-Hilal 3-2 Al-Ittihad. S. Bergwijn (Al-Ittihad) converts the penalty.

87'

J. Simić

VAR: no penalty for Al-Ittihad.

84'

M. A. Hawsawi

Attempt missed. M. A. Hawsawi (Al-Hilal), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

83'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

83'

A. Al-Ghamdi

Substitution, Al-Ittihad: A. Mukhtar comes on for A. Al-Ghamdi.

83'

H. Aouar

Substitution, Al-Ittihad: S. Al-Shehri comes on for H. Aouar.

82'

M. A. Hawsawi

Attempt saved. M. A. Hawsawi (Al-Hilal), left-footed shot. xG 0.24.

81'

M. Kanno

Attempt blocked. M. Kanno (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.07.

81'

O. Watkins

Substitution, Al-Hilal: S. Mandash comes on for O. Watkins.

81'

N. Al-Dawsari

Substitution, Al-Hilal: M. A. Hawsawi comes on for N. Al-Dawsari.

80'

H. Aouar

Attempt saved. H. Aouar (Al-Ittihad), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

79'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

74'

M. Kanno

Attempt missed. M. Kanno (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

73'

S. Bergwijn

Yellow card for S. Bergwijn (Al-Ittihad) for foul.

71'

R. Neves

Attempt missed. R. Neves (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.01.

71'

K. Koulibaly

Attempt missed. K. Koulibaly (Al-Hilal), header from a set piece. xG 0.19.

69'

A. Faris

Substitution, Al-Ittihad: M. Faqeehi comes on for A. Faris.

69'

M. Shanqeeti

Substitution, Al-Ittihad: A. Al-Julaydan comes on for M. Shanqeeti.

67'

S. Bouabré

Substitution, Al-Hilal: M. Kanno comes on for S. Bouabré.

67'

T. Hernández

Substitution, Al-Hilal: M. Al-Harbi comes on for T. Hernández.

64'

C. Summerville

Goal! Al-Hilal 3-1 Al-Ittihad. C. Summerville (Al-Hilal) scores, assisted by O. Watkins.

59'

S. Bouabré

Off the woodwork! S. Bouabré (Al-Hilal), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

58'

M. Al-Sahafi

Substitution, Al-Ittihad: G. Wijnaldum comes on for M. Al-Sahafi.

57'

Al-Hilal

Offside, Al-Hilal.

56'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

54'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

53'

D. Pereira

Attempt missed. D. Pereira (Al-Ittihad), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

51'

G. Martinelli

Attempt blocked. G. Martinelli (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

50'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

49'

D. Lopy

Attempt saved. D. Lopy (Al-Ittihad), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

49'

Al-Ittihad

Corner, Al-Ittihad.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Al-Hilal 2-1 Al-Ittihad.

45+3'

O. Watkins

VAR check complete: the goal for Al-Hilal stands.

45+1'

Al-Ittihad

Offside, Al-Ittihad.

45'

4 minutes of added time.

45'

Y. En-Nesyri

Attempt saved. Y. En-Nesyri (Al-Ittihad), header from a set piece. xG 0.06.

43'

Al-Ittihad

Corner, Al-Ittihad.

42'

S. Bergwijn

Attempt missed. S. Bergwijn (Al-Ittihad), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.06.

41'

Al-Ittihad

Corner, Al-Ittihad.

40'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

39'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

39'

C. Summerville

Attempt blocked. C. Summerville (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

38'

D. Lopy

Yellow card for D. Lopy (Al-Ittihad) for foul.

37'

R. Neves

Yellow card for R. Neves (Al-Hilal) for argument.

30'

O. Watkins

Goal! Al-Hilal 2-1 Al-Ittihad. O. Watkins (Al-Hilal) scores.

22'

Y. En-Nesyri

Goal! Al-Hilal 1-1 Al-Ittihad. Y. En-Nesyri (Al-Ittihad) scores, assisted by M. Al-Sahafi.

20'

H. Aouar

Attempt missed. H. Aouar (Al-Ittihad), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

18'

Al-Hilal

Offside, Al-Hilal.

17'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

16'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

13'

O. Watkins

Attempt blocked. O. Watkins (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.07.

11'

G. Martinelli

Goal! Al-Hilal 1-0 Al-Ittihad. G. Martinelli (Al-Hilal) scores, assisted by O. Watkins.

7'

S. Bouabré

Attempt saved. S. Bouabré (Al-Hilal), right-footed shot. xG 0.14.

6'

G. Martinelli

Attempt saved. G. Martinelli (Al-Hilal), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

6'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

5'

O. Watkins

Attempt saved. O. Watkins (Al-Hilal), header. xG 0.08.

3'

Al-Hilal

Corner, Al-Hilal.

1'

Kick-off: Al-Hilal vs Al-Ittihad.

Where the money is

136621 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 2 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 31149 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

94.5%

-4.5 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

3.3%

+3.2 vs price

Draw 24.0 · implied 4.2%

2.8%

-1.4 vs price

Half time 2592 EUR · live

Home 1.12 · implied 89.3%

79.6%

-9.7 vs price

Draw 15.0 · implied 6.7%

14.7%

+8.0 vs price

Away 11.5 · implied 8.7%

5.6%

-3.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 21096 EUR · live

Over 1.07 · implied 93.5%

92.6%

-0.8 vs price

Under 15.5 · implied 6.5%

7.4%

+1.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 524 EUR · live

Under 1.34 · implied 74.6%

83.6%

+9.0 vs price

Over 2.98 · implied 33.6%

16.0%

-17.5 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

11' ⚽ G. Martinelli · assist O. Watkins1–0

22' ⚽ Y. En-Nesyri · assist M. Al-Sahafi1–1

30' ⚽ O. Watkins2–1

37' R. Neves · Argument

38' D. Lopy · Foul

Half-time · 2–1

45'⁺³ VAR Goal not given after review · O. Watkins

58' 🔁 G. Wijnaldum ◂ M. Al-Sahafi

64' ⚽ C. Summerville · assist O. Watkins3–1

67' 🔁 M. Al-Harbi ◂ T. Hernández

67' 🔁 M. Kanno ◂ S. Bouabré

69' 🔁 A. Al-Julaydan ◂ M. Shanqeeti

69' 🔁 M. Faqeehi ◂ A. Faris

73' S. Bergwijn · Foul

81' 🔁 M. A. Hawsawi ◂ N. Al-Dawsari

81' 🔁 S. Mandash ◂ O. Watkins

83' 🔁 S. Al-Shehri ◂ H. Aouar

83' 🔁 A. Mukhtar ◂ A. Al-Ghamdi

87' VAR Penalty check · J. Simić

89' ⚽ S. Bergwijn (pen)3–2

Full-time · 3–2

90' 🔁 A. Lajami ◂ H. Altambakti

90'⁺⁶ P. Rajković · Argument

Coaches

Simone Inzaghi

Jens Wissing

Recent form

Al-Hilal

WAAl-Taawoun6-0

LHNeom SC0-2

WAAl-Shabab2-0

WHAl-Ahli3-0

WAAl-Khaleej5-1

Al-Ittihad

WAAl Faisaly3-1

WHAl-Fayha2-1

WHAl-Nassr2-1

DAAl-Fateh0-0

WHAl-Hazem3-2

About this match

**Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad are ready for the Saudi Pro League's heavyweight clash** — a matchup between the league's two most in-form sides, and Al-Hilal's absolute stranglehold in this fixture.

Al-Hilal have **won 17 of the last 30 head-to-heads** and rolled into this one brimming with confidence after dismantling Al-Taawoun 6-0 away. Al-Ittihad aren't backing down though — they've racked up four wins in five themselves, including a bragging-rights 2-1 over Al-Nassr. The question is whether Al-Ittihad can actually pose a threat this time around. 🔥

Key storylines:

- **G. Martinelli and O. Watkins** spearhead Al-Hilal's attack and will be the focal point of how Al-Ittihad's backline copes with pace and movement
- **H. Aouar** orchestrating Al-Ittihad's midfield creativity against **S. Milinković-Savić** and **R. Neves** — a mismatch on paper favoring Hilal
- Al-Ittihad's injury woes (A. Sharahili and H. Al-Ghamdi out) could leave their build-up vulnerable

Expected lineups:

- **Al-Hilal**: M. Al-Owais, M. Al-Harbi, H. Altambakti, Y. Akçiçek, R. Neves, S. Milinković-Savić, G. Martinelli, O. Watkins
- **Al-Ittihad**: P. Rajković, A. Faris, D. Pereira, J. Simić, D. Lopy, H. Aouar, S. Bergwijn, Y. En-Nesyri

Prediction:

**Al-Hilal 2-0 Al-Ittihad**

Hilal's dominance in the fixture + Ittihad's missing defenders = a comfortable evening for the favorites. 💪

Where to watch

DStv NowESPN Africa

Match facts

Stadium

Kingdom Arena

City

Riyadh

Referee

Khaled Al Teris

4.24 yellows/match · 37 matches

Kickoff

10 Oct, 18:00 UTC

Competition

Saudi Pro League

Highlights & clips

Al-Hilal 4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1 Al-Ittihad

37 Bono 6.2 2 M. Mahzari 7.6 78 A. Lajami ↑ 90' 3 K. Koulibaly 6.2 24 M. Al-Harbi 6.3 ↑ 67' 28 M. Kanno 6.7 ↑ 67' 8 R. Neves 8.0 18 M. A. Hawsawi 6.6 ↑ 81' 38 C. Summerville 7.4 7 G. Martinelli 7.2 27 S. Mandash 6.7 ↑ 81' 1 P. Rajković 7.3 42 M. Faqeehi 6.6 ↑ 69' 2 D. Pereira 6.5 4 J. Simić 8.2 32 A. Al-Julaydan 6.9 ↑ 69' 30 D. Lopy 7.0 8 A. Mukhtar 6.7 ↑ 83' 23 G. Wijnaldum 6.7 ↑ 58' 11 S. Al-Shehri 6.5 ↑ 83' 34 S. Bergwijn 6.7 21 Y. En-Nesyri 7.9

Substitutes

33GM. Al-Owais 19DT. Hernández↓ 67'7.4 87DH. Altambakti↓ 90'6.3 6MN. Al-Dawsari↓ 81'7.1 70MS. Bouabré↓ 67'6.4 77MN. Al-Habashi 96MS. Al-Zaid 72MS. A. Dahal 11FO. Watkins↓ 81'8.3

Coach: Simone Inzaghi

Substitutes

50GM. Al-Absi 13DM. Shanqeeti↓ 69'6.0 25DA. Faris↓ 69'5.8 6DS. Al-Mousa 10MH. Aouar↓ 83'6.9 29MF. Alshamrani 60MR. Kaabi 27FA. Al-Ghamdi↓ 83'7.0 22FM. Al-Sahafi↓ 58'6.6

Coach: Jens Wissing

Top stats

49%Possession51%

2.26Expected goals (xG)1.14

16Total shots7

7Shots on target5

4Big chances2

9Corners4

Shots

5Shots off target2

4Blocked shots0

11Shots inside box3

5Shots outside box4

1Hit woodwork0

2Big chances scored2

2Big chances missed0

-0.81Goals prevented0.45

Attack

37Touches in box15

68Final third entries49

2Offsides1

11Free kicks13

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

402Passes430

330Accurate passes373

28/51 (55%)Long balls13/30 (43%)

3/16 (19%)Crosses1/16 (6%)

28Throw-ins15

Duels

43Duels57

33/70 (47%)Ground duels37/70 (53%)

3/13 (23%)Aerial duels10/13 (77%)

5/12 (42%)Dribbles7/16 (44%)

11Dispossessed9

Defending

18Tackles18

67Tackles won83

5Interceptions9

14Clearances29

48Recoveries45

Discipline

14Fouls11

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

1Big saves2

4Goal kicks7

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Al-Hilal 73%

16%

Al-Ittihad 11%

1X2Al-Hilal to win 73% · 1.57 @ William Hill

Who winsAl-Hilal to win (DNB) 84% · 1.13 @ Betano

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 71% · 2.75 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 87% · 1.57 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 2.75 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.37 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 62% · 1.71 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 50% · 2.16 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 16% · 3.44 @ 1xBet

1X2Al-Ittihad to win 11% · 6.40 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 52% · 1.97 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.26

Al-Hilal

5.75

Draw

8.00

Al-Ittihad

Double Chanceconsensus

1.05

Al-Hilal or Draw

1.09

Al-Hilal or Al-Ittihad

3.40

Draw or Al-Ittihad

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.57

Yes

2.25

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

19.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

19.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.06

Over 1.50

7.27

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.33

Over 2.50

3.25

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

1.87

Over 3.50

1.90

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

2.89

Over 4.50

1.38

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.10

Al-Hilal

6.10

Al-Ittihad

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.18

Over 7.50

3.42

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.37

Over 8.50

2.62

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.67

Over 9.50

2.10

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.08

Over 10.50

1.68

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.58

Over 11.50

1.38

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Al-Hilal to win or draw

✓

89% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

87% confidence

Al-Hilal to avoid defeat

✓

84% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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