Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Al-Ittihad rolls into this one on four wins in five**, and Diriyah are about to feel the weight of that form. The hosts are clinical right now — this should be a statement performance at home. 🔥
Al-Ittihad are flying with **4W in their last 5**, only stumbling to Al-Hilal away. Diriyah have been steadier but unspectacular: **2W, 2D, 1L** over the same stretch, with a nasty 0-3 mauling from Al-Nassr still fresh. The momentum gap is real.
Key storylines:
- **S. Bergwijn and Y. En-Nesyri** spearhead Al-Ittihad's attack in a formation built for fluidity and pace
- **H. Aouar** pulling strings in midfield for the hosts while Diriyah's **E. Millot and Ó. Rodríguez** try to impose structure
- Al-Ittihad missing three to injury but **G. Ilenikhena** steps in — Diriyah have no excuses on the availability front
Expected lineups:
- **Al-Ittihad**: P. Rajković, A. Faris, D. Lopy, J. Simić, D. Pereira, H. Aouar, S. Bergwijn, Y. En-Nesyri, A. Mukhtar, A. Al-Ghamdi, G. Ilenikhena
- **Diriyah**: N. Vasilj, C. Mbemba, I. Gueye, B. Djimsiti, A. Al-Faraj, E. Millot, Ó. Rodríguez, H. Bahebri, C. Diandy, D. Núñez, G. Laborde
Prediction:
**Al-Ittihad 3-1 Diriyah**
Hosts lean into their hot streak and bury Diriyah's resistance before halftime.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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