Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Haiti's looking to bounce back, but Costa Rica are desperate to show they're not a sinking ship.** Both teams have been getting battered in recent windows, so this is a genuine coin flip between two sides searching for any scrap of momentum. 🏈
Haiti's 1W-4L record is rough, but they've at least stolen a win lately. Costa Rica have gone winless in five with three heavy defeats — that **0-5 drubbing vs Iran** still stings. The head-to-head leans ever so slightly Costa Rica's way (4-2-3 across nine meetings), but form tells a different story.
Key storylines:
- **Haiti's attack** (Isidor, Pierrot, Casimir) needs to create more than they're getting in away fixtures — they've shipped goals in bunches lately
- **Costa Rica's backline**, already thin without Martínez and Núñez, will lean on keeper **Navas** to keep them in it
- **Providence and Bellegarde** controlling Haiti's midfield could be the difference in a tight, messy affair
Expected lineups:
- **Haiti**: Placide, Expérience, Adé, Delcroix, Arcus, Providence, Bellegarde, Pierre, Casimir, Pierrot, Isidor
- **Costa Rica**: Navas, Vargas, Calvo, Mitchell, Alcócer, Mora, Galo, Aguilera, Flores, Ugalde, Vargas
Prediction:
**Haiti 1–1 Costa Rica.** Both teams are fragile right now; a draw feels like the honest outcome between two sides just trying to avoid embarrassment. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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