Saint Lucia 5-2 Bermuda: Stats, xG & Lineups – Sep 29, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Saint Lucia 5-2 Bermuda.

90+5'

Y. Noel

Attempt blocked. Y. Noel (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.23.

90+1'

N. Wells

Substitution, Bermuda: L. Steede-Jackson comes on for N. Wells.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

88'

N. Wells

Attempt missed. N. Wells (Bermuda), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

86'

R. Robinson

Attempt saved. R. Robinson (Bermuda), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

82'

N. Wells

Attempt saved. N. Wells (Bermuda), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

82'

E. Darrell

Attempt missed. E. Darrell (Bermuda), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.14.

80'

S. Byron

Substitution, Saint Lucia: G. Reggie comes on for S. Byron.

80'

K. Caull

Substitution, Saint Lucia: Y. Noel comes on for K. Caull.

80'

A. Jude-Boyd

Substitution, Saint Lucia: D. Edward comes on for A. Jude-Boyd.

78'

N. Wells

Attempt saved. N. Wells (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

75'

K. Caull

Attempt missed. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

74'

E. Russell

Substitution, Bermuda: E. Darrell comes on for E. Russell.

74'

A. Burchall

Substitution, Bermuda: B. Borgesson comes on for A. Burchall.

73'

Bermuda

Corner, Bermuda.

71'

S. Hall

Yellow card for S. Hall (Bermuda) for foul.

70'

R. Robinson

Goal! Saint Lucia 5-2 Bermuda. R. Robinson (Bermuda) scores.

70'

R. Robinson

Attempt saved. R. Robinson (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

69'

A. Louis

Substitution, Saint Lucia: G. President comes on for A. Louis.

68'

K. Frederick

Goal! Saint Lucia 5-1 Bermuda. K. Frederick (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by C. Elva.

65'

Z. Lewis

Substitution, Bermuda: R. Robinson comes on for Z. Lewis.

62'

A. Jude-Boyd

Attempt missed. A. Jude-Boyd (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

61'

D. Hill

Attempt saved. D. Hill (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

60'

A. Jude-Boyd

Attempt missed. A. Jude-Boyd (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.11.

59'

N. Wells

Attempt missed. N. Wells (Bermuda), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.18.

53'

S. Byron

Goal! Saint Lucia 4-1 Bermuda. S. Byron (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by K. Frederick.

50'

D. Hill

Attempt blocked. D. Hill (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

46'

K. Caull

Attempt missed. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.20.

46'

B. Morrison

Substitution, Bermuda: S. Hall comes on for B. Morrison.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Saint Lucia 3-1 Bermuda.

45+1'

Bermuda

Corner, Bermuda.

45+1'

A. Burchall

Goal! Saint Lucia 3-1 Bermuda. A. Burchall (Bermuda) scores, assisted by Z. Lewis.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

45'

N. Wells

Attempt saved. N. Wells (Bermuda), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.

44'

A. Burchall

Attempt saved. A. Burchall (Bermuda), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

44'

K. Caull

Attempt missed. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.34.

44'

A. Louis

Yellow card for A. Louis (Saint Lucia) for foul.

43'

J. Donawa

Attempt saved. J. Donawa (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

39'

D. Lionel

Yellow card for D. Lionel (Saint Lucia) for foul.

35'

K. Caull

Goal! Saint Lucia 3-0 Bermuda. K. Caull (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by S. Byron.

33'

Saint Lucia

Offside, Saint Lucia.

29'

K. Caull

Attempt saved. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

26'

Bermuda

Corner, Bermuda.

25'

A. Burchall

Attempt saved. A. Burchall (Bermuda), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

25'

E. Russell

Attempt missed. E. Russell (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

25'

N. Wells

Attempt blocked. N. Wells (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

18'

K. Caull

Goal! Saint Lucia 2-0 Bermuda. K. Caull (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by C. Elva.

15'

K. Caull

Goal! Saint Lucia 1-0 Bermuda. K. Caull (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by K. Frederick.

14'

K. Caull

Attempt saved. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

11'

K. Frederick

Attempt blocked. K. Frederick (Saint Lucia), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

11'

C. Elva

Attempt blocked. C. Elva (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

8'

J. Donawa

Attempt missed. J. Donawa (Bermuda), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

6'

Saint Lucia

Offside, Saint Lucia.

4'

S. Byron

Attempt missed. S. Byron (Saint Lucia), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

3'

N. Tucker

Attempt blocked. N. Tucker (Bermuda), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

3'

A. Burchall

Attempt blocked. A. Burchall (Bermuda), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

3'

Bermuda

Corner, Bermuda.

1'

Kick-off: Saint Lucia vs Bermuda.

Where the money is

71793 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 2 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 32394 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

92.4%

-6.6 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.6%

+4.5 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

3.0%

+2.9 vs price

Half time 108 EUR · live

Away 3.0 · implied 33.3%

60.0%

+26.7 vs price

Home 4.3 · implied 23.3%

31.4%

+8.1 vs price

Draw 2.48 · implied 40.3%

7.4%

-32.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 5257 EUR · live

Over 1.05 · implied 95.2%

94.6%

-0.7 vs price

Under 12.0 · implied 8.3%

5.4%

-2.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 890 EUR · live

Over 1.92 · implied 52.1%

60.6%

+8.5 vs price

Under 1.92 · implied 52.1%

39.3%

-12.7 vs price

10 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

15' ⚽ K. Caull · assist K. Frederick1–0

18' ⚽ K. Caull · assist C. Elva2–0

35' ⚽ K. Caull · assist S. Byron3–0

39' D. Lionel · Foul

44' A. Louis · Foul

Half-time · 3–1

45'⁺¹ ⚽ A. Burchall · assist Z. Lewis3–1

46' 🔁 S. Hall ◂ B. Morrison

53' ⚽ S. Byron · assist K. Frederick4–1

65' 🔁 R. Robinson ◂ Z. Lewis

68' ⚽ K. Frederick · assist C. Elva5–1

69' 🔁 G. President ◂ A. Louis

70' ⚽ R. Robinson5–2

71' S. Hall · Foul

74' 🔁 B. Borgesson ◂ A. Burchall

74' 🔁 E. Darrell ◂ E. Russell

80' 🔁 D. Edward ◂ A. Jude-Boyd

80' 🔁 Y. Noel ◂ K. Caull

80' 🔁 G. Reggie ◂ S. Byron

Full-time · 5–2

90'⁺¹ 🔁 L. Steede-Jackson ◂ N. Wells

Coaches

Rajesh Latchoo

Michael Findlay

Recent form

Saint Lucia

LABarbados0-2

LASaint Vincent and the Grenadines1-3

LACuba0-3

WHBarbados2-1

LACuraçao0-4

Bermuda

LHGuadeloupe1-2

LACabo Verde0-3

LADR Congo0-2

DATrinidad and Tobago2-2

LHCuraçao0-7

About this match

**Two struggling sides collide in a must-not-lose clash** — Saint Lucia and Bermuda are both drowning in the relegation waters, and this CONCACAF Nations League tussle is basically a playoff for staying afloat. 🏝️

Saint Lucia scraped one win in five but just got hammered 0-3 by Cuba; Bermuda has been even worse, drawing once and losing four straight with no goals in two of those. Someone has to find the net here, right?

Key storylines:

- **Saint Lucia's attack needs **S. Nelson** or **G. President** to finally click** — they've been blanked twice in recent road losses and can't afford another.
- **Bermuda's backline (led by **D. Leverock** and **H. Twite**) has to tighten up** after conceding 3+ goals in back-to-back games.
- **This is a coin flip on form** — both teams are so low on confidence that whoever avoids a mental collapse first wins it.

Expected lineups:

- **Saint Lucia**: V. Barclett, K. Frederick, T. Thomas, M. Doxilly, A. Jude-Boyd, L. Joseph, S. Nelson, G. President, S. Byron
- **Bermuda**: D. Eve, D. Hill, H. Twite, D. Leverock, R. Jones Jr., K. Martin, N. Tucker, D. Parfitt-Williams, J. Donawa

Prediction:

**Saint Lucia 1-0 Bermuda**. Slight edge to the hosts — at least they've won recently.

Where to watch

Betano

Match facts

Stadium

Darren Sammy Cricket Ground

City

Gros Islet

Kickoff

29 Sep, 00:00 UTC

Competition

CONCACAF Nations League

Highlights & clips

Saint Lucia 4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2 Bermuda

1 V. Barclett 8.1 21 G. President 6.4 ↑ 69' 5 D. Lionel 6.2 4 T. Thomas 6.5 18 S. Nelson 6.3 6 M. Doxilly 7.0 2 K. Frederick 8.9 22 D. Edward 6.5 ↑ 80' 14 C. Elva 7.1 9 Y. Noel 6.5 ↑ 80' 13 G. Reggie 6.4 ↑ 80' 1 M. Perott 5.0 6 S. Hall 6.3 ↑ 46' 2 E. Peets 5.7 17 H. Twite 6.5 11 D. Hill 6.4 15 E. Darrell 6.4 ↑ 74' 20 R. Robinson 7.7 ↑ 65' 5 N. Tucker 7.2 22 J. Donawa 6.7 4 L. Steede-Jackson ↑ 90' 13 B. Borgesson 6.4 ↑ 74'

Substitutes

23GD. Donaie 16GD. St.Prix 12DA. Jude-Boyd↓ 80'6.7 3DA. Louis↓ 69'6.1 20DA. Hippolyte 8ML. Joseph 7MM. S. Romain 10FK. Caull↓ 80'10.0 19FS. Byron↓ 80'8.0 11FD. Augustin 15FB. Sandiford 17FB. Edward

Coach: Rajesh Latchoo

Substitutes

18GL. Robinson 23GC. F. Jr 12GJ. Hill 14DB. Morrison↓ 46'5.3 7DC. McDowall 3MD. Richardson 8MD. Parfitt-Williams 10FZ. Lewis↓ 65'7.1 19FA. Burchall↓ 74'7.1 9FE. Russell↓ 74'6.9 21FN. Wells↓ 90'6.4

Coach: Michael Findlay

Top stats

43%Possession57%

2.89Expected goals (xG)2.09

16Total shots20

7Shots on target11

6Big chances3

3Corners8

Shots

6Shots off target5

3Blocked shots4

11Shots inside box11

5Shots outside box9

4Big chances scored2

2Big chances missed1

Attack

20Touches in box15

42Final third entries67

2Offsides2

6Free kicks16

0Fouled in final third3

Passing

338Passes451

275Accurate passes395

26/54 (48%)Long balls23/50 (46%)

3/8 (38%)Crosses0/11 (0%)

24Throw-ins27

Duels

51Duels49

35/71 (49%)Ground duels36/71 (51%)

8/13 (62%)Aerial duels5/13 (38%)

8/16 (50%)Dribbles9/17 (53%)

3Dispossessed13

Defending

21Tackles11

67Tackles won45

9Interceptions8

19Clearances19

49Recoveries42

Discipline

16Fouls6

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

1Big saves1

12Goal kicks7

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Saint Lucia 32%

27%

Bermuda 42%

1X2Bermuda to win 42% · 2.60 @ Bet365

BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.76 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.90 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.87 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.60 @ Bet365

Who winsSaint Lucia to win (DNB) 60% · 2.30 @ Novibet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54%

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 63% · 1.47 @ betfair

1X2Saint Lucia to win 32% · 3.24 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.83

Saint Lucia

3.33

Draw

2.16

Bermuda

Double Chanceconsensus

1.59

Saint Lucia or Draw

1.28

Saint Lucia or Bermuda

1.33

Draw or Bermuda

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.56

Yes

2.27

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

12.20

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.18

Over 1.50

4.20

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.66

Over 2.50

2.11

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.63

Over 3.50

1.42

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.00

Over 4.50

1.13

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.20

Saint Lucia

1.60

Bermuda

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

3.27

Saint Lucia

2.27

Draw

2.74

Bermuda

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

3.20

Saint Lucia

2.58

Draw

2.50

Bermuda

Both Teams to Score (1st Half)consensus

3.75

Yes

1.23

No

Both Teams to Score (2nd Half)consensus

2.75

Yes

1.40

No

Total Goals (1st Half) 0.50consensus

1.30

Over 0.50

3.20

Under 0.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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