Saint Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Saint Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe.

90+7'

L. Joseph

Yellow card for L. Joseph (Saint Lucia) for argument.

90+6'

C. Elva

Yellow card for C. Elva (Saint Lucia) for foul.

90+4'

J. Gamby

Attempt missed. J. Gamby (Guadeloupe), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

90+2'

S. Byron

Substitution, Saint Lucia: D. Augustin comes on for S. Byron.

90+2'

M. Doxilly

Substitution, Saint Lucia: L. Joseph comes on for M. Doxilly.

90+1'

S. Nelson

Substitution, Saint Lucia: A. Hippolyte comes on for S. Nelson.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

90'

S. Byron

Yellow card for S. Byron (Saint Lucia) for foul.

85'

A. Vulgaire

Attempt missed. A. Vulgaire (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

81'

K. Caull

Substitution, Saint Lucia: M. S. Romain comes on for K. Caull.

79'

M. Alphonse

Attempt missed. M. Alphonse (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

79'

Guadeloupe

Corner, Guadeloupe.

78'

J. Gamby

Attempt saved. J. Gamby (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

76'

M. Cysique

Substitution, Guadeloupe: K. Montantin comes on for M. Cysique.

75'

A. Jude-Boyd

Substitution, Saint Lucia: G. President comes on for A. Jude-Boyd.

65'

A. Plumain

Substitution, Guadeloupe: A. Vulgaire comes on for A. Plumain.

64'

D. Capraja

Attempt blocked. D. Capraja (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

64'

W. Francillonne

Attempt missed. W. Francillonne (Guadeloupe), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

64'

Guadeloupe

Corner, Guadeloupe.

63'

Guadeloupe

Corner, Guadeloupe.

62'

D. Capraja

Attempt saved. D. Capraja (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot. xG 0.22.

59'

B. Tafna-Danavin

Substitution, Guadeloupe: F. Geran comes on for B. Tafna-Danavin.

57'

D. Phillip

Goal! Saint Lucia 3-0 Guadeloupe. D. Phillip (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by K. Caull.

54'

M. Alphonse

Yellow card for M. Alphonse (Guadeloupe) for argument.

48'

Guadeloupe

Corner, Guadeloupe.

48'

A. Plumain

Attempt blocked. A. Plumain (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

48'

W. Francillonne

Attempt blocked. W. Francillonne (Guadeloupe), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

47'

K. Caull

Attempt missed. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.16.

46'

L. Mausse

Substitution, Guadeloupe: J. Gamby comes on for L. Mausse.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Saint Lucia 2-0 Guadeloupe.

45+2'

K. Frederick

Attempt missed. K. Frederick (Saint Lucia), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.

45+1'

M. Cysique

Yellow card for M. Cysique (Guadeloupe) for off the ball foul.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

45'

D. Boisné

Attempt blocked. D. Boisné (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

38'

Saint Lucia

Offside, Saint Lucia.

35'

C. Elva

Attempt missed. C. Elva (Saint Lucia), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

35'

A. Jude-Boyd

Goal! Saint Lucia 2-0 Guadeloupe. A. Jude-Boyd (Saint Lucia) scores, assisted by K. Caull.

27'

D. Capraja

Attempt blocked. D. Capraja (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

22'

K. Caull

Attempt blocked. K. Caull (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

21'

M. Doxilly

Attempt missed. M. Doxilly (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.01.

18'

C. Elva

Goal! Saint Lucia 1-0 Guadeloupe. C. Elva (Saint Lucia) converts the penalty.

12'

K. Frederick

Attempt missed. K. Frederick (Saint Lucia), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

7'

Saint Lucia

Offside, Saint Lucia.

3'

A. Plumain

Attempt blocked. A. Plumain (Guadeloupe), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

1'

Kick-off: Saint Lucia vs Guadeloupe.

Where the money is

68193 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 43758 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

93.2%

-5.8 vs price

Away 950.0 · implied 0.1%

5.1%

+5.0 vs price

Draw 950.0 · implied 0.1%

1.8%

+1.7 vs price

Half time 73 EUR · live

Home 1.18 · implied 84.7%

99.2%

+14.5 vs price

Draw

0.0%

Away

0.0%

Over/Under 2.5 goals 5345 EUR · live

Over 1.32 · implied 75.8%

69.0%

-6.7 vs price

Under 4.0 · implied 25.0%

31.0%

+6.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 380 EUR · live

Under 1.16 · implied 86.2%

90.6%

+4.3 vs price

Over 4.4 · implied 22.7%

9.2%

-13.5 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

18' ⚽ C. Elva (pen)1–0

35' ⚽ A. Jude-Boyd · assist K. Caull2–0

Half-time · 2–0

45'⁺¹ M. Cysique · Off the ball foul

46' 🔁 J. Gamby ◂ L. Mausse

54' M. Alphonse · Argument

57' ⚽ D. Phillip · assist K. Caull3–0

59' 🔁 F. Geran ◂ B. Tafna-Danavin

65' 🔁 A. Vulgaire ◂ A. Plumain

75' 🔁 G. President ◂ A. Jude-Boyd

76' 🔁 K. Montantin ◂ M. Cysique

81' 🔁 M. S. Romain ◂ K. Caull

Full-time · 3–0

90' S. Byron · Foul

90'⁺¹ 🔁 A. Hippolyte ◂ S. Nelson

90'⁺² 🔁 L. Joseph ◂ M. Doxilly

90'⁺² 🔁 D. Augustin ◂ S. Byron

90'⁺⁶ C. Elva · Foul

90'⁺⁷ L. Joseph · Argument

Coaches

Rajesh Latchoo

Jocelyn Angloma

Recent form

Saint Lucia

WHBermuda5-2

LABarbados0-2

LASaint Vincent and the Grenadines1-3

LACuba0-3

WHBarbados2-1

Guadeloupe

DHBarbados2-2

WABermuda2-1

LHGuatemala2-3

LAJamaica1-2

LAPanama2-5

About this match

**Saint Lucia and Guadeloupe are both flatlined — whoever shows up first could nick this.** 🔥 Neither side can string wins together, making this a classic coin flip in Bridgetown.

Saint Lucia just hammered Bermuda 5-2 at home but followed that by losing twice on the road. Guadeloupe drew with Barbados but fell to Guatemala, and they're 1W-1D-3L across their last five. Head-to-head is level at 1-1, so there's zero clear edge here.

Key storylines:

- **Saint Lucia's form yo-yo**: Big wins mixed with road defeats means consistency is the real enemy heading in.
- **Guadeloupe chasing defensive stability**: Only one win in five makes this a must-not-lose moment for attacking craft and set-piece precision.
- **Neutral venue wildcard**: Playing in Barbados could shuffle home-field advantage; neither squad gets the comfort factor.

Expected lineups:

- **Saint Lucia**: V. Barclett, K. Frederick, T. Thomas, M. Doxilly, S. Byron, S. Nelson, G. President, C. Elva
- **Guadeloupe**: D. Rouyard, K. Montantin, S. Darase, F. Geran, A. Plumain, D. Boisné, T. Arconte, W. Jacques

Prediction:

**Saint Lucia 2–1 Guadeloupe.** Slight lean to the Lucia attack; they've shown more firepower recently and should edge a scrappy affair.

Where to watch

ViX

Match facts

Stadium

BFA Technical Centre

City

Bridgetown

Kickoff

02 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Competition

CONCACAF Nations League

Highlights & clips

Saint Lucia 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Guadeloupe

1 V. Barclett 7.1 21 G. President 6.6 ↑ 75' 5 D. Lionel 6.5 4 T. Thomas 7.7 20 A. Hippolyte ↑ 90' 8 L. Joseph ↑ 90' 2 K. Frederick 7.3 12 D. Augustin ↑ 90' 14 C. Elva 7.2 9 D. Phillip 7.8 7 M. S. Romain 6.4 ↑ 81' 23 D. Rouyard 5.5 2 M. Alphonse 6.6 5 Y. Raddas 5.9 4 K. Montantin 6.6 ↑ 76' 21 F. Geran 6.8 ↑ 59' 17 K. Giblaca 6.5 6 W. Francillonne 6.6 18 D. Capraja 6.5 12 A. Vulgaire 6.5 ↑ 65' 10 D. Boisné 6.3 11 J. Gamby 6.1 ↑ 46'

Substitutes

16GD. St.Prix 23GD. Donaie 11DA. Jude-Boyd↓ 75'8.2 6DM. Doxilly↓ 90'6.5 18MS. Nelson↓ 90'7.2 22MD. Edward 10FK. Caull↓ 81'7.6 19FS. Byron↓ 90'7.0 13FG. Reggie 15FY. Noel 17FB. Edward

Coach: Rajesh Latchoo

Substitutes

16GM. Philemon 1GA. Silo 13DM. Cysique↓ 76'6.4 3DB. Tafna-Danavin↓ 59'6.2 22DS. Darase 15DH. Dezac 8MA. Plumain↓ 65'6.2 20MT. Davillars 7MM. Citronnelle 19FL. Mausse↓ 46'6.3 14FW. Jacques

Coach: Jocelyn Angloma

Top stats

51%Possession49%

2.23Expected goals (xG, estimated)0.72

8Total shots12

3Shots on target2

3Big chances1

3Corners5

Shots

4Shots off target4

1Blocked shots6

5Shots inside box4

3Shots outside box8

3Big chances scored0

0Big chances missed1

Attack

15Touches in box12

50Final third entries51

2Offsides0

11Free kicks14

4Fouled in final third3

Passing

328Passes323

264Accurate passes265

30/54 (56%)Long balls24/47 (51%)

2/14 (14%)Crosses2/11 (18%)

31Throw-ins16

Duels

51Duels49

30/64 (47%)Ground duels34/64 (53%)

10/15 (67%)Aerial duels5/15 (33%)

7/15 (47%)Dribbles4/6 (67%)

9Dispossessed10

Defending

12Tackles17

83Tackles won76

8Interceptions8

18Clearances16

41Recoveries38

Discipline

14Fouls12

3Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

1Big saves0

6Goal kicks7

1Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 22 bookmakers

Saint Lucia 33%

26%

Guadeloupe 42%

Who winsGuadeloupe to win (DNB) 65% · 1.68 @ Betsson

1X2Guadeloupe to win 42% · 2.50 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 63% · 2.75 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 3.30 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.76 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 26% · 2.75 @ Bet365

1X2Saint Lucia to win 33% · 3.12 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 59% · 1.57 @ Pinnacle

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.77

Saint Lucia

3.55

Draw

2.17

Guadeloupe

Double Chanceconsensus

1.62

Saint Lucia or Draw

1.24

Saint Lucia or Guadeloupe

1.36

Draw or Guadeloupe

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.49

Yes

2.45

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

6.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.40

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

15.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.14

Over 1.50

4.80

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.53

Over 2.50

2.39

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.33

Over 3.50

1.54

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.20

Over 4.50

1.18

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.10

Saint Lucia

1.65

Guadeloupe

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

3.35

Saint Lucia

2.35

Draw

2.67

Guadeloupe

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

3.00

Saint Lucia

2.70

Draw

2.44

Guadeloupe

Both Teams to Score (1st Half)consensus

3.50

Yes

1.25

No

Both Teams to Score (2nd Half)consensus

2.58

Yes

1.44

No

Total Goals (1st Half) 0.50consensus

1.25

Over 0.50

3.55

Under 0.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Over 1.5 goals

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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