Israel Damonte
Aldosivi
Gimnasia y Esgrima**Gimnasia rolls into Mar del Plata looking to build momentum, while Aldosivi desperately needs a win after three draws and two losses.** This is a clash between a team that just beat River Plate and one stuck in neutral. 🔄
Gimnasia's 2W-1D-2L start is miles ahead of Aldosivi's winless streak. The visitors have the form edge here, but missing four players (G. Errecalde, M. Torres, M. Melluso, R. Giampaoli) could complicate their away-day execution. Aldosivi's defensive setup at home with **N. Breitenbruch** and **N. Zalazar** will look to frustrate.
Key storylines:
- **Gimnasia's injury crisis** — Four absentees mean the lineup is stretched; depth will be tested
- **Aldosivi chasing their first win** — After 3D-2L, even a point keeps the draw streak alive, but they'll smell opportunity at home
- **Head-to-head edge** — Gimnasia won their last meeting; they'll back themselves to do it again
Expected lineups:
- **Aldosivi**: I. Chicco, N. Breitenbruch, N. Zalazar, F. Laurelli, A. Sosa, L. Castro, N. Linares, N. Cordero, A. Vombergar
- **Gimnasia y Esgrima**: N. Insfrán, A. Steimbach, P. S. Torrejón, B. B. Schelotto, I. Fernández, I. Miramón, J. D. Merlo, A. Auzmendi, F. Torres
Prediction:
**Gimnasia y Esgrima 1–1 Aldosivi**
Form and fixture history give Gimnasia the lean, but injuries and Aldosivi's home desperation will keep this tight. 🏟️
Aldosivi
4-3-3 · 4-3-3
Gimnasia y Esgrima
No bet in this match — nothing offers both a real edge and a worthwhile price. The full breakdown is below for the curious.
| Our call | How likely | Bookmakers say | Their odds | Price check | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goalsGoals | 68% | 68% | 1.37 | Overpriced | medium |
| Gimnasia to win (DNB)Who wins | 54% | 54% | 1.71 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 3.5 goalsGoals | 84% | 84% | 1.11 | Overpriced | high |
| BTTS: NoBTTS | 59% | 59% | 1.57 | Overpriced | low |
| Draw1X2 | 34% | 34% | 2.75 | Overpriced | low |
| Gimnasia to win1X2 | 36% | 36% | 2.59 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 9.5 cornersCorners | 55% | 55% | 1.68 | Overpriced | low |
| Under 10.5 cornersCorners | 66% | 66% | 1.4 | Overpriced | medium |
| Over 8.5 cornersCorners | 56% | 56% | 1.64 | Overpriced | low |
| Aldosivi to win1X2 | 30% | 30% | 3.08 | Overpriced | low |
| Over 1.5 goalsGoals | 58% | 58% | 1.61 | Overpriced | low |
Where we disagree most with the bookmakers: Gimnasia to win (DNB) — we say 63%, they say 54%.
| Market | This match | League avg | Diff | More likely? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | 63% | -5% | No |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32% | 35% | -3% | No |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 14% | +2% | Yes |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 44% | -3% | No |
| Home win | 30% | 44% | -14% | No |
| Draw | 34% | 29% | +5% | Yes |
| Away win | 36% | 27% | +9% | Yes |
How to read this: "72% · high" means we expect it to happen about 72 times out of 100 — football always keeps the rest. "Worth it above X" is the minimum odds where the pick makes mathematical sense; "Overpriced" means the bookmaker pays less than that. Not betting advice — no outcome is guaranteed.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.