Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Unión hosting Defensa y Justicia in a coin-flip derby that screams "whoever shows up first wins." 🔥** Form's all over the place — Unión's lurching between wins and losses, while Defensa y Justicia have hit their stride with three straight victories.
Unión's been leaking goals at home (conceded six in their last three at the Estadio 15 de Abril), and they're without **L. Vargas** on the injury front. Defensa y Justicia, meanwhile, are rolling — **3-0 over San Lorenzo** and **2-0 over Gimnasia** shows teeth. Head-to-head is dead even over the last 13 (4-4, five draws), so expect tension.
Key storylines:
- **Unión's fragile backline** needs to tighten up fast; **D. Martínez** and the visitors' shape will test them hard
- **Defensa y Justicia's attacking rhythm** — **T. Perrotta** and **J. M. Gutiérrez** have momentum on their side
- Away form is the x-factor; Defensa drew with Central Córdoba on the road last time out
Expected lineups:
- **Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe**: M. Mansilla, L. Ayala, J. Luduena, M. Rocha, J. Pintado, B. Cuello, L. Menossi, E. Giaccone, J. Palacios, C. Tarragona, M. Estigarribia
- **Defensa y Justicia**: M. Borgogno, F. Román, D. Fernández, D. Martínez, V. Loza, C. Pérez, S. Sosa, L. Fernández, D. Barbona, T. Perrotta, J. M. Gutiérrez
Prediction:
**1-1 draw.** Unión scrapes out a point at home, but Defensa y Justicia's grit keeps them level.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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