Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Rosario Central rolling, Sarmiento limping — this is a classic David vs. Goliath moment on Halloween** 🎃 The visitors arrive in scintillating form (4W-1D), while the hosts are scrapping to stay afloat with just one win in five.
Sarmiento's been held to draws at home by decent sides; Rosario Central just obliterated Independiente Rivadavia 5-0. The H2H favors the visitors decisively (6 wins to 2), and injuries to Central's defense aren't stopping the momentum.
Key storylines:
- **Rosario Central's firepower** has been relentless — three wins by multiple goals in the last month suggests Sarmiento's leaky backline is in trouble
- **Sarmiento need a spark at home** — two straight draws on their own turf show they can't break down compact defenses, and Central will be clinical
- **Á. Di María** and the Central attack will feast on space; Sarmiento's midfield (J. Mavilla, C. Zabala) will be stretched thin
Expected lineups:
- **Sarmiento**: T. Ayala, N. Pasquini, J. M. Insaurralde, R. Orihuela, S. Salle, J. Mavilla, C. Zabala, M. Martínez, J. Contrera, J. Marabel, J. Herrera
- **Rosario Central**: C. Ledesma, A. Sández, G. Ávila, I. Ovando, E. Coronel, F. Ibarra, V. Pizarro, J. Campaz, Á. Rodríguez, Á. Di María, E. Copetti
Prediction:
**Rosario Central 2–0 Sarmiento.** Central have the edge, and home isn't saving the hosts here.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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