Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Guillermo Schelotto
Vélez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo**Vélez rolls in as the form pick, but San Lorenzo's got enough scrappiness to make this interesting.** 🔥 The hosts are 3-1-1 over their last five with that emphatic 5-0 demolition of Central Córdoba, while the visitors are treading water at 2-1-2 and just scraped past Estudiantes. Dead rubber on the H2H though—26 clashes split three ways, so no real edge there.
**Vélez's defensive spine looks solid** with Gómez and García anchoring the back line, and **Lanzini pulling strings in midfield** gives them control. San Lorenzo are minus Barrios (cruciate injury), a real blow, and their three-at-the-back setup might invite pressure. **Tatiana Aguirre up top** will fancy the chances against a touring defense that's shipping goals inconsistently.
Key storylines:
- **Vélez's form** vs. a San Lorenzo side still hunting consistency—hosts should dominate possession
- **Lanzini's creativity** as the creative fulcrum; San Lorenzo's midfield will need to stay compact
- **Absent Barrios** leaves San Lorenzo's backline stretched; watch for quick transitions down the wings
Expected lineups:
- **Vélez Sarsfield**: Marchiori, Silvero, Gómez, García, Magallán, Robertone, Lanzini, Martinez, Policella, Verón, Aguirre
- **San Lorenzo**: Devecchi, Pagano, Arboleda, Amor, Herrera, Corujo, Tripichio, Perruzzi, Ladstatter, Auzmendi, Álvarez
Prediction:
**Vélez 2–0 San Lorenzo.** Hosts' form gives them a clear edge at home. 🎯
Vélez Sarsfield
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-1-2
San Lorenzo
Everything we are at least 80% sure of for this match. We publish nothing below that — across all fixtures, 87.0% of these turn out right.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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