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Gary Bowyer
Burton Albion
Stevenage
Burton Albion
3-4-2-1 · 4-1-4-1
Stevenage
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
1753 EUR
Over
2.48 · implied 40.3%
55.0%
+14.7 vs price
Under
1.67 · implied 59.9%
44.9%
-14.9 vs price
6 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
Half-time · 0–0
59'
🔁
J. Magennis ◂ P. Patterson
72'
🔁
W. Collar ◂ C. Webster
74'
⚽
J. Armer · assist S. Krubally1–0
75'
🔁
S. Earley ◂ J. Roberts
75'
🔁
T. Taylor ◂ T. Vancooten
84'
🔁
O. Sanderson ◂ J. Reid
84'
🔁
J. Houghton ◂ L. Thompson
Full-time · 1–1
90'
🔁
Z. Scutt ◂ S. Krubally
90'+1
⚽
O. Sanderson · assist J. Magennis1–1
Coaches
Gary BowyerAlex Revell 
Recent form
Burton AlbionLHBlackburn Rovers1-2
WHDerby County1-0
DASolihull Moors1-1
LHBirmingham City0-1
LHLeicester City0-3
StevenageWAWycombe Wanderers2-1
WHColchester United1-0
WHMillwall1-0
LHWest Ham United0-5
DAFC Andorra0-0
Match facts
Stadium
Pirelli Stadium
City
Burton upon Trent
Referee
Kickoff
15 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
League One
Highlights & clips
Burton Albion
3-4-2-1 · 4-1-4-1
Stevenage
34
C. Addai
6.8
6
T. Sibbick
6.7
26
F. Delap
6.2
16
C. Tilt
6.7
15
K. Lofthouse
6.5
12
G. Evans
7.0
40
Z. Scutt
↑ 90'
3
J. Armer
8.2
4
K. Chauke
6.6
14
W. Collar
6.4
↑ 72'
19
M. Dennis
6.4
1
F. Marschall
6.4
2
L. James-Wildin
6.4
7
T. Taylor
6.7
↑ 75'
5
C. Piergianni
7.1
6
L. Freestone
6.6
4
J. Houghton
6.7
↑ 84'
14
S. Earley
6.6
↑ 75'
8
D. Phillips
6.5
10
D. Kemp
6.4
9
J. Magennis
7.1
↑ 59'
18
O. Sanderson
7.3
↑ 84'
Substitutes
27GK. Dudek
20DJ. Sraha
52DM. Henry
41MS. Krubally↓ 90'7.1
8MC. Webster↓ 72'6.9
28FM. Matthews-Lewis
Coach: Gary Bowyer
Substitutes
12GD. Barden
15DT. Vancooten↓ 75'6.6
23ML. Thompson↓ 84'6.6
44MP. Patterson↓ 59'6.5
11MJ. Roberts↓ 75'6.2
19FJ. Reid↓ 84'6.0
45FJ. Malcolm
Coach: Alex Revell
Top stats
52%Possession48%
0.94Expected goals (xG)0.51
10Total shots5
2Shots on target3
1Big chances1
2Corners0
Shots
7Shots off target1
1Blocked shots1
6Shots inside box3
4Shots outside box2
0Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed0
0.07Goals prevented-0.23
Attack
15Touches in box16
85Final third entries89
1Offsides1
17Free kicks14
1Fouled in final third2
Passing
428Passes392
301Accurate passes278
24/91 (26%)Long balls32/98 (33%)
0/8 (0%)Crosses2/8 (25%)
23Throw-ins31
Duels
53Duels47
34/67 (51%)Ground duels33/67 (49%)
22/38 (58%)Aerial duels16/38 (42%)
3/9 (33%)Dribbles1/7 (14%)
12Dispossessed9
Defending
15Tackles18
73Tackles won39
7Interceptions5
11Clearances19
56Recoveries47
Discipline
14Fouls17
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
4Goal kicks10
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 67 bookmakers
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 61% · 1.67 @ betfair
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 80% · 1.03 @ Bet365
BTTSBTTS: No 54% · 1.93 @ betfair
1X2Draw 30% · 2.37 @ efbet.net
CornersOver 9.5 corners 50% · 1.91 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.53 @ Betway
1X2Stevenage to win 30% · 3.21 @ efbet.net
Who winsBurton to win (DNB) 57% · 1.93 @ merkurxtip
1X2Burton to win 39% · 3.21 @ efbet.net
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.67 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 64% · 1.48 @ betfair
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.66
Burton Albion ▲
3.05
Draw ▲
2.68
Stevenage ▼
Double Chanceconsensus
1.43
Burton Albion or Draw
1.35
Burton Albion or Stevenage ▲
1.42
Draw or Stevenage ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.92
Yes ▼
1.79
No ▲
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.10
Over 0.50
7.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.40
Over 1.50 ▼
2.73
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.28
Over 2.50 ▼
1.57
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.19
Over 3.50 ▼
1.19
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
8.69
Over 4.50 ▼
1.05
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.87
Burton Albion ▲
1.85
Stevenage ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
13.00
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50
10.23
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.17
Over 6.50
4.10
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.25
Over 7.50
3.50
Under 7.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.47
Over 8.50 ▼
2.47
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.82
Over 9.50 ▼
1.87
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.31
Over 10.50 ▲
1.54
Under 10.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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