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Martin Paterson
Notts County
Burton Albion
Notts County
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Burton Albion
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
68923 EUR · live
Home
1.03 · implied 97.1%
54.1%
-43.0 vs price
Away
150.0 · implied 0.7%
34.5%
+33.8 vs price
Draw
20.0 · implied 5.0%
12.3%
+7.2 vs price
Half time
200 EUR · live
Away
4.8 · implied 20.8%
49.5%
+28.7 vs price
Draw
2.16 · implied 46.3%
49.0%
+2.7 vs price
Home
24.0 · implied 4.2%
1.0%
-3.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
14268 EUR · live
Under
1.52 · implied 65.8%
63.3%
-2.5 vs price
Over
2.96 · implied 33.8%
36.7%
+2.9 vs price
7 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
22'
⚽
F. Delap · assist J. Armer0–1
34'
C. Tilt · Foul
36'
R. Finneran · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
46'
🔁
L. Smyth ◂ J. Evans
51'
J. Armer · Foul
52'
S. Krubally · Foul
62'
🔁
T. Shade ◂ Z. Scutt
62'
🔁
W. Collar ◂ S. Krubally
65'
G. Evans · Foul
66'
🔁
C. Grant ◂ C. Roberts
66'
🔁
Q. Kouhyar ◂ D. Lipsiuc
78'
⚽
L. Smyth · assist N. Tsaroulla1–1
83'
C. Tilt · Professional foul last man
84'
⚽
L. Smyth (pen)2–1
87'
🔁
K. Adom ◂ G. Evans
Full-time · 2–1
90'
🔁
I. Samuels-Smith ◂ N. Tsaroulla
Coaches
Martin PatersonGary Bowyer 
Recent form
Notts CountyDALuton Town2-2
DHLeicester City1-1
DABurnley1-1
DAWalsall0-0
LHNottingham Forest0-2
Burton AlbionWALeicester City2-1
DHStevenage1-1
LHBlackburn Rovers1-2
WHDerby County1-0
DASolihull Moors1-1
Match facts
Kickoff
29 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
League One
Highlights & clips
Notts County
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Burton Albion
1
J. Belshaw
5.9
2
J. Gibbons
6.5
12
L. Ness
6.6
4
J. Bedeau
6.5
26
I. Samuels-Smith
↑ 90'
27
R. Finneran
7.2
19
L. Smyth
8.7
↑ 46'
17
Q. Kouhyar
6.7
↑ 66'
42
H. Mustapha
6.6
11
C. Grant
6.9
↑ 66'
8
O. Cooper
7.3
34
C. Addai
7.6
6
T. Sibbick
6.7
26
F. Delap
7.4
16
C. Tilt
5.6
15
K. Lofthouse
6.4
29
K. Adom
6.5
↑ 87'
14
W. Collar
6.2
↑ 62'
3
J. Armer
6.9
4
K. Chauke
6.7
8
C. Webster
6.2
10
T. Shade
6.5
↑ 62'
Substitutes
21GH. Griffiths
44DM. Baker
25MN. Tsaroulla↓ 90'8.1
7MC. Roberts↓ 66'7.1
15MJ. Evans↓ 46'6.8
14MD. Lipsiuc↓ 66'6.4
49MK. Muir
Coach: Martin Paterson
Substitutes
27GK. Dudek
20DJ. Sraha
24DH. Araujo
23DE. Adeile
41MS. Krubally↓ 62'6.5
12MG. Evans↓ 87'6.3
40FZ. Scutt↓ 62'6.4
Coach: Gary Bowyer
Top stats
60%Possession40%
2.29Expected goals (xG)0.11
20Total shots2
8Shots on target1
4Big chances1
7Corners1
Shots
9Shots off target0
3Blocked shots1
16Shots inside box1
4Shots outside box1
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
3Big chances missed0
-0.89Goals prevented0.18
Attack
38Touches in box4
66Final third entries70
1Offsides2
21Free kicks13
8Fouled in final third0
Passing
487Passes326
389Accurate passes226
21/63 (33%)Long balls16/70 (23%)
8/29 (28%)Crosses2/10 (20%)
17Throw-ins18
Duels
53Duels47
39/68 (57%)Ground duels29/68 (43%)
16/36 (44%)Aerial duels20/36 (56%)
2/8 (25%)Dribbles5/6 (83%)
5Dispossessed15
Defending
16Tackles11
56Tackles won64
8Interceptions7
22Clearances27
44Recoveries44
Discipline
13Fouls22
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
0Big saves1
2Goal kicks11
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
Who winsNotts County to win (DNB) 74% · 1.44 @ Bet365
1X2Draw 28% · 2.40 @ 10bet
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 52% · 1.17 @ William Hill
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.95 @ 10bet
BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 3.40 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.30 @ 10bet
1X2Burton to win 31% · 3.43 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64% · 1.32 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.54 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 72% · 2.18 @ 1xBet
1X2Notts County to win 41% · 2.75 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.29
Notts County
3.30
Draw
3.00
Burton Albion
Double Chanceconsensus
1.33
Notts County or Draw
1.27
Notts County or Burton Albion
1.58
Draw or Burton Albion
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.75
Yes
1.95
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.95
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.25
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
9.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.30
Over 1.50
3.25
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.96
Over 2.50
1.80
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.42
Over 3.50
1.29
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.75
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.43
Notts County
2.65
Burton Albion
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.49
Over 7.50
2.40
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.84
Over 8.50
1.88
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.30
Over 9.50
1.52
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.99
Over 10.50
1.31
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.79
Over 11.50
1.15
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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