Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Oxford's home form is the real deal, but Burton just steamrolled Wimbledon** — this is a clash of momentum where the hosts' recent firepower meets a visitor side that knows how to nick results. 🔥
Oxford have been electric at the Kassam, putting four past Leicester and three past Huddersfield in their last run. Burton, though, are compact and efficient — their 4-1 demolition of AFC Wimbledon shows they're no pushovers, and they've dodged defeat in three of their last five. The head-to-head leans Oxford's way historically (12 wins to 7), which adds a little flavor to the narrative.
Key storylines:
- **Oxford's attacking intent** vs Burton's disciplined shape — the hosts will want to set the tempo early and pin Burton back
- **Burton's counter threat** through **M. Dennis** and **C. Vickers** — if Oxford overcommit, the visitors could punish on the break
- **Midfield battle between C. Brannagan** and **G. Evans** — controlling possession will be key for both sides
Expected lineups:
- **Oxford United**: S. Eastwood, J. Currie, C. Brown, M. Helik, B. Spencer, C. Brannagan, J. McDonnell, S. Dembélé, L. Sibley, J. Jeon, M. Harris
- **Burton Albion**: C. Addai, J. Armer, F. Delap, T. Sibbick, K. Lofthouse, G. Evans, K. Chauke, S. Krubally, C. Vickers, M. Dennis, Z. Scutt
Prediction:
**Oxford United 2–1 Burton Albion** — the hosts' home edge and recent form give them a slight favorite lean, but expect Burton to make it tight. ⚪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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