Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Bradford's on a roll, but Stevenage aren't coming to play dead.** The Bantams are unbeaten in their last five with three wins; Boro have matched that with an identical record but just suffered a shock loss to League One's basement-dwellers. 🔴
Bradford have the head-to-head edge across the rivalry — eight wins to Stevenage's three over 14 meetings — and the form suggests they'll fancy their chances at home. Stevenage bounced back well with a 2-1 win over Luton, though, so expect them to be compact and hunt on the break.
Key storylines:
- **Bradford's attacking shape** with K. Jackson and B. Pointon supporting J. Beesley up front could overwhelm a Stevenage side that tends to sit deep
- **J. Magennis and J. Roberts** will be Stevenage's outlet on the counter; they need space to breathe against Bradford's press
- **Midfield battle** between A. Sarcevic and H. Cartwright versus D. Kemp and D. Phillips will set the tone — whoever controls tempo wins
Expected lineups:
- **Bradford City**: J. McCracken, I. Touray, A. Baldwin, M. Pennington, C. Connolly, A. Sarcevic, H. Cartwright, K. Morgan, B. Pointon, J. Beesley, K. Jackson
- **Stevenage**: T. Setford, L. Freestone, C. Piergianni, T. Vancooten, L. James-Wildin, D. Kemp, D. Phillips, L. Thompson, P. Patterson, J. Magennis, J. Roberts
Prediction:
**Bradford 2-0 Stevenage** — home form and recent momentum give the Bantams a slight edge. ⚪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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