Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Plymouth roll into Broadhall Way as the clear favorites in League One, but Stevenage's recent form suggests this could be tighter than the visitors expect.** Both sides have matched records over their last five — 3W, 2L — yet the head-to-head tells a brutal story: **Plymouth lead 7-2 in the fixture, with just two draws to sweeten Stevenage's past.** 🔴
Stevenage have won at home but struggled away, while **Plymouth's resilience showed in a 2-1 comeback against AFC Wimbledon** after a humbling loss to Huddersfield. The Argyle defense, anchored by **M. Ross and A. Mitchell**, has seen most of the action.
Key storylines:
- **J. Roberts and J. Houghton** lead Stevenage's creative charge in a compact 4-4-1-1 setup designed to frustrate a visiting side
- **Plymouth's attack pairing of B. Ibrahim and W. Evans** carry the burden of breaking down a stubborn home shape
- **H. White's midfield control** will be crucial; if Curtis and Bakinson don't impose themselves, Stevenage edges into the contest
Expected lineups:
- **Stevenage**: T. Setford, L. Freestone, T. Vancooten, C. Piergianni, L. James-Wildin, D. Phillips, D. Kemp, J. Houghton, J. Magennis, O. Sanderson, J. Roberts
- **Plymouth Argyle**: M. Cooper, W. Harding, A. Mitchell, M. Ross, J. Edwards, H. White, R. Curtis, T. Bakinson, B. Ibrahim, W. Evans, O. Oseni
Prediction:
**0-1 Plymouth** — slight favorites, but Stevenage's home fortress keeps it close.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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