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Ian Holloway
Swindon Town
Cheltenham Town
Swindon Town
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1
Cheltenham Town
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
10852 EUR · live
Home
2.2 · implied 45.5%
70.1%
+24.6 vs price
Away
3.75 · implied 26.7%
18.6%
-8.1 vs price
Draw
3.5 · implied 28.6%
11.3%
-17.3 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
3031 EUR · live
Under
1.68 · implied 59.5%
57.0%
-2.6 vs price
Over
2.42 · implied 41.3%
43.0%
+1.7 vs price
5 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
4'
M. Virtue-Thick · Foul
17'
⚽
A. Drinan · assist A. Munda1–0
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
O. Palmer ◂ J. Pearman
53'
🔁
L. Millard ◂ B. Middlemas
55'
⚽
O. Clarke · assist S. Negru2–0
61'
🔁
T. Nichols ◂ O. Clarke
61'
🔁
K. A. M. Majekodunmi ◂ R. Tafazolli
63'
🔁
A. Weimann ◂ K. Otchere
71'
🔁
R. Broom ◂ J. Shipley
71'
🔁
J. Bickerstaff ◂ G. Nurse
85'
🔁
F. Willcox ◂ J. Evans
85'
🔁
J. Debayo ◂ M. Virtue-Thick
85'
⚽
R. Broom · assist P. Sweeney2–1
Full-time · 2–1
90'+2
J. Bickerstaff · Simulation
Coaches
Ian HollowaySteve Cotterill 
Recent form
Swindon TownDANorthampton Town0-0
LACardiff City2-3
WAForest Green Rovers4-1
WHLeyton Orient2-1
LHBristol City1-3
Cheltenham TownWHRotherham United2-1
LHCharlton Athletic1-3
LHMilton Keynes Dons0-2
WAEvesham United3-0
LHColchester United1-4
Match facts
Kickoff
22 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
League Two
Highlights & clips
Swindon Town
4-2-3-1 · 4-1-4-1
Cheltenham Town
1
C. Ripley
7.5
2
M. Clark
6.5
5
S. Negru
7.9
21
K. A. M. Majekodunmi
6.3
↑ 61'
34
B. Kirkman
8.0
27
A. Munda
7.1
39
L. Millard
6.4
↑ 53'
18
J. Debayo
6.7
↑ 85'
7
T. Nichols
6.9
↑ 61'
28
O. Palmer
6.5
↑ 46'
23
A. Drinan
7.2
23
W. Stanway
6.1
3
J. Tomkinson
6.2
5
R. Cundy
6.7
25
P. Sweeney
6.6
14
R. Broom
7.5
↑ 71'
7
B. Stevenson
6.8
33
F. Willcox
6.6
↑ 85'
4
J. Tomlinson
6.5
8
C. McCann
6.0
11
J. Bickerstaff
6.7
↑ 71'
18
A. Weimann
6.3
↑ 63'
Substitutes
12GL. Ward
17DR. Tafazolli↓ 61'7.4
38DL. Griffiths-Brown
8MO. Clarke↓ 61'8.0
22MJ. Pearman↓ 46'6.8
20MB. Middlemas↓ 53'6.6
24MM. Virtue-Thick↓ 85'6.1
Coach: Ian Holloway
Substitutes
1GJ. Day
21DG. Nurse↓ 71'6.1
35DM. Barber
26MJ. Shipley↓ 71'6.1
19FJ. Evans↓ 85'6.2
9FK. Otchere↓ 63'5.9
Coach: Steve Cotterill
Top stats
42%Possession58%
0.0Expected goals (xG)0.0
5Total shots14
3Shots on target6
1Big chances1
2Corners5
Shots
1Shots off target4
1Blocked shots4
2Shots inside box9
3Shots outside box5
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored0
0Big chances missed1
Attack
15Touches in box29
54Final third entries73
12Free kicks7
0Fouled in final third1
Passing
342Passes464
232Accurate passes347
27/86 (31%)Long balls25/75 (33%)
1/9 (0%)Crosses6/17 (35%)
29Throw-ins45
Duels
60Duels40
43/66 (65%)Ground duels23/66 (35%)
23/44 (52%)Aerial duels21/44 (48%)
3/6 (50%)Dribbles8/27 (30%)
6Dispossessed10
Defending
29Tackles9
62Tackles won67
11Interceptions9
54Clearances17
55Recoveries67
Discipline
7Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
1Big saves0
10Goal kicks5
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 68 bookmakers
1X2Swindon to win 56% · 2.23 @ merkurxtip
Who winsSwindon to win (DNB) 70% · 1.45 @ merkurxtip
CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.77 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.45 @ Unibet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 4.33 @ 888Sport
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 2.06 @ 1xBet
BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.25 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 23% · 2.65 @ forbet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.05 @ 888Sport
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.73 @ Pinnacle
1X2Cheltenham to win 21% · 4.33 @ 10bet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.77
Swindon Town ▲
3.59
Draw ▲
4.14
Cheltenham Town ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.20
Swindon Town or Draw
1.25
Swindon Town or Cheltenham Town
1.92
Draw or Cheltenham Town ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.72
Yes
1.98
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.10
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
7.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
10.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.24
Over 1.50 ▼
3.61
Under 1.50 ▼
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.79
Over 2.50 ▼
1.92
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.94
Over 3.50 ▲
1.35
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.75
Over 4.50
1.12
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.32
Swindon Town
3.09
Cheltenham Town ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
13.00
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.04
Over 5.50
8.80
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.11
Over 6.50
5.70
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.19
Over 7.50
3.98
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.44
Over 8.50
2.65
Under 8.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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