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Ian Holloway
Swindon Town
Port Vale
Swindon Town
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1
Port Vale
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
43822 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
66.7%
-32.4 vs price
Away
490.0 · implied 0.2%
23.8%
+23.6 vs price
Draw
490.0 · implied 0.2%
9.5%
+9.3 vs price
Half time
180 EUR
Away
3.1 · implied 32.3%
99.8%
+67.5 vs price
Home
0.0%
Draw
0.0%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
1184 EUR
Under
1.9 · implied 52.6%
55.7%
+3.1 vs price
Over
2.06 · implied 48.5%
44.3%
-4.2 vs price
7 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
2'
⚽
O. Lynch · assist J. Lawrence-Gabriel0–1
13'
⚽
A. Drinan1–1
Half-time · 1–1
46'
🔁
B. Garrity ◂ M. Craig
46'
🔁
L. Montsma ◂ O. Hernández
46'
🔁
T. Simpson ◂ B. Waine
56'
🔁
B. Middlemas ◂ R. Tafazolli
56'
🔁
J. Snowdon ◂ T. Nichols
58'
C. Humphreys · Foul
71'
⚽
B. Middlemas2–1
74'
🔁
L. Millard ◂ O. Palmer
76'
🔁
G. Hall ◂ R. Walters
81'
🔁
J. Headley ◂ L. Gordon
87'
J. Thomson · Foul
Full-time · 3–1
90'+3
🔁
J. Ball ◂ A. Drinan
90'+4
⚽
L. Millard3–1
Coaches
Ian HollowayJon Brady 
Recent form
Swindon TownLAOldham Athletic0-3
WHCheltenham Town2-1
DANorthampton Town0-0
LACardiff City2-3
WAForest Green Rovers4-1
Port ValeDHCrewe Alexandra0-0
DHTranmere Rovers1-1
LAOldham Athletic0-2
LAWolverhampton0-3
WABlackpool1-0
Match facts
Kickoff
01 Sep, 18:45 UTC
Competition
League Two
Highlights & clips
Swindon Town
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1
Port Vale
1
C. Ripley
7.0
2
M. Clark
6.8
5
S. Negru
7.1
19
J. Snowdon
6.9
↑ 56'
21
K. A. M. Majekodunmi
6.9
25
J. Thomson
6.9
27
A. Munda
6.2
8
O. Clarke
7.4
39
L. Millard
7.7
↑ 74'
6
J. Ball
↑ 90'
20
B. Middlemas
7.4
↑ 56'
1
J. Smith
6.2
6
J. Lawrence-Gabriel
6.8
25
C. Humphreys
5.7
5
C. Hall
6.9
3
J. Headley
6.3
↑ 81'
33
G. Hall
6.8
↑ 76'
10
K. Dempsey
6.6
22
L. Montsma
6.5
↑ 46'
8
B. Garrity
6.4
↑ 46'
17
T. Simpson
6.2
↑ 46'
14
O. Lynch
6.5
Substitutes
12GL. Ward
17DR. Tafazolli↓ 56'6.5
18DJ. Debayo
38DL. Griffiths-Brown
7MT. Nichols↓ 56'6.7
23FA. Drinan↓ 90'7.5
28FO. Palmer↓ 74'6.8
Coach: Ian Holloway
Substitutes
20GM. Maroši
15DL. Gordon↓ 81'6.6
2DK. John
37MM. Craig↓ 46'6.6
38MR. Walters↓ 76'6.5
19FB. Waine↓ 46'6.3
11FO. Hernández↓ 46'6.1
Coach: Jon Brady
Top stats
46%Possession54%
1.46Expected goals (xG, estimated)0.93
14Total shots8
6Shots on target2
4Big chances1
10Corners4
Shots
3Shots off target3
5Blocked shots3
12Shots inside box5
2Shots outside box3
1Big chances scored1
3Big chances missed0
Attack
30Touches in box17
53Final third entries73
3Offsides3
7Free kicks10
Passing
278Passes330
160Accurate passes203
28/78 (36%)Long balls28/84 (33%)
4/15 (27%)Crosses6/17 (35%)
25Throw-ins35
Duels
54Duels46
33/71 (46%)Ground duels38/71 (54%)
50/82 (61%)Aerial duels32/82 (39%)
3/9 (33%)Dribbles9/22 (41%)
14Dispossessed13
Defending
26Tackles20
77Tackles won65
13Interceptions10
28Clearances36
43Recoveries36
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow cards1
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
1Big saves1
8Goal kicks9
0Punches2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 56% · 2.33 @ Unibet
Who winsSwindon to win (DNB) 70% · 2.50 @ Betsson
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.83 @ Unibet
1X2Port Vale to win 40% · 2.45 @ 10bet
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.17 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 28% · 2.50 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.33 @ 10bet
BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.40 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.17 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 55% · 1.37 @ 1xBet
1X2Swindon to win 33% · 3.70 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.30
Swindon Town
3.40
Draw
2.10
Port Vale
Double Chanceconsensus
1.67
Swindon Town or Draw
1.27
Swindon Town or Port Vale
1.29
Draw or Port Vale
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.75
Yes
1.95
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
5.75
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.80
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
9.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.29
Over 1.50
3.30
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.92
Over 2.50
1.84
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.40
Over 3.50
1.29
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.63
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.39
Swindon Town
1.52
Port Vale
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.45
Over 7.50
2.49
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.71
Over 8.50
2.02
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.13
Over 9.50
1.62
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.88
Over 10.50
1.33
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.70
Over 11.50
1.21
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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