Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Newport's struggling, Fleetwood's cruising** — one side desperately needs a win, the other keeps finding ways not to lose. 🔴
Newport have won just one in five and are leaking goals on the road. Fleetwood, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five and **drawing seems to be their superpower** with three stalemates in that run. This has coin-flip energy written all over it.
Key storylines:
- **Newport's away form** is a genuine worry: 0-1, 1-2, 2-2 tells you they can't keep clean sheets or close out matches
- **Fleetwood's defensive solidity** under pressure — they've conceded just twice in five and won't make this easy
- **Y. Bamba** up front for Newport will need support from the midfield if they're to break through **J. Lynch** and that back three
Expected lineups:
- **Newport County**: J. Wright, T. Davies, C. Brennan, K. Cameron, J. Thomas, H. Biggins, L. Jenkins, S. Gwengwe, K. Evans, C. Norman, Y. Bamba
- **Fleetwood Town**: J. Lynch, D. Andrew, F. Potter, R. Bennett, S. Rooney, H. Neal, M. Helm, A. Cannon, L. McCann, C. Evans, W. Davies
Prediction:
**1-1** — neither side has the sharpness to grab all three, and Fleetwood's draw habit edges out Newport's desperation. Lean draw. ⚪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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