Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Fleetwood roll into Rochdale's backyard looking to keep their bounce rolling** — the Cod Army have been largely solid at home, while Rochdale's stumbling against decent teams suggests there's space to exploit. 🎯
Fleetwood sit pretty in the form stakes, though that 1-3 loss to Barnet was a reminder nothing's guaranteed. Rochdale have won twice in five but also shipped four at home to Gillingham, which isn't the vibe you want heading into a road trip.
Key storylines:
- **Fleetwood's home record** against Rochdale historically favors the hosts — 7 wins in their last 18 meetings shows a clear edge
- **W. Davies and C. Evans** will need to dictate tempo in attack; Rochdale's midfield pairing of **H. Gilmour and E. Francis** will be tasked with shutting down the space
- **Rochdale's defensive fragility** — conceding four at home is damning, and **K. Wilson and E. Ebanks-Landell** face another stiff test against Fleetwood's forward line
Expected lineups:
- **Fleetwood Town**: J. Lynch, D. Andrew, F. Potter, R. Bennett, S. Rooney, H. Neal, M. Helm, A. Murphy, L. McCann, C. Evans, W. Davies
- **Rochdale**: N. Ramming, K. Taylor, K. Wilson, E. Ebanks-Landell, D. Moss, H. Gilmour, E. Francis, G. Middleton, R. East, J. Smith, D. Brown
Prediction:
**Fleetwood Town 2–1 Rochdale**
Home form and head-to-head history give Fleetwood a slight favorite lean here. 📍
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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