Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Oldham's in freefall and Accrington smell blood.** 🔴 The Latics have won zero of their last five, while Stanley rolls in on back-to-back wins — this looks like a classic get-right game for the visitors.
Form tells the whole story: Oldham dropped 1-4 at home to Salford and 0-2 away to Rochdale, while Accrington just blanked Newport and still took the three points. Head-to-head favors Stanley too (3 wins in the last five meetings).
Key storylines:
- **Oldham's defensive collapse**: Conceding four to Salford and two to Rochdale screams structural issues that **K. Drummond** and co. can't paper over
- **Accrington's momentum**: **S. Mols** and **J. Woods** have fires lit, turning draws into wins and shutting out teams
- **Accrington's away pedigree**: The 1-1 at Swindon shows Stanley travels well — **C. O'Brien** and the back three can handle Oldham's attack
Expected lineups:
- **Oldham Athletic**: M. Hudson, J. Robson, D. Daniels, R. Delaney, G. Scott-Morriss, O. Norburn, K. Appiah-Forson, C. Kavanagh, N. Chilvers, F. Fawunmi, K. Drummond
- **Accrington Stanley**: L. Moulden, D. Tutonda, J. Anderson, D. Matthews, C. O'Brien, S. Conneely, D. Love, L. Coyle, T. Walton, J. Woods, S. Mols
Prediction:
**Accrington Stanley 2-0 Oldham Athletic** — Stanley's in control and Oldham's leaking goals everywhere.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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