Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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**Newport are rolling at home, and York just got spanked by Chesterfield** — this feels like a mismatch on paper. 🔴
Newport's on a lovely run: two wins and three draws across five, with only one goal conceded in their last three matches. York bounced back with a 3-0 demolition of Gillingham but can't shake the 2-0 loss to Chesterfield. The head-to-head tells the story — **Newport dominate this fixture**, winning 6 of the last 10.
Key storylines:
- **C. Doidge** leading the Newport attack at home, where they've conceded almost nothing lately
- York's defense (**M. Kitching**, **Z. Johnson**, **M. Williams**) must tighten up after the Chesterfield hammering
- **H. Biggins** and **K. Cameron** controlling midfield tempo for the hosts
Expected lineups:
- **Newport County**: J. Wright, M. Jacob, C. Brennan, L. Jenkins, C. Norman, H. Biggins, K. Cameron, S. Gwengwe, M. M. Dibley-Dias, M. Adu-Poku, C. Doidge
- **York City**: A. McNally, M. Kitching, Z. Johnson, M. Williams, R. Fallowfield, O. Banks, A. Hunt, H. Boyes, A. Newby, O. Pearce, J. Grey
Prediction:
**Newport County 2-0 York City** — home form, defensive stability, and head-to-head history all point the same way. 📍
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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