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Walsall
Walsall
Walsall
Swindon Town
Walsall
Walsall
L. Grant
Walsall
Walsall
Walsall
Walsall
Walsall
Walsall
Walsall
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Ian Holloway
Swindon Town
Walsall
Swindon Town
3-4-1-2 · 4-2-3-1
Walsall
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Swindon Town 1-1 Walsall.
90+2'
Attempt blocked. B. Kirkman (Swindon Town), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.
90'
4 minutes of added time.
89'
Attempt missed. L. Millard (Swindon Town), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.
83'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
78'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
74'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
66'
Swindon Town
Corner, Swindon Town.
66'
Walsall
Offside, Walsall.
64'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
59'
L. Grant
Yellow card for L. Grant (Walsall) for argument.
55'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Swindon Town 1-0 Walsall.
45+2'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
45'
4 minutes of added time.
45'
Walsall
Offside, Walsall.
44'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
36'
Walsall
Offside, Walsall.
28'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
26'
Walsall
Corner, Walsall.
16'
Attempt missed. J. Thomson (Swindon Town), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.
10'
Swindon Town
Corner, Swindon Town.
7'
Swindon Town
Offside, Swindon Town.
1'
Kick-off: Swindon Town vs Walsall.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Half time
59 EUR
Draw
2.48 · implied 40.3%
98.9%
+58.6 vs price
Home
0.0%
Away
0.0%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
8679 EUR · live
Over
5.5 · implied 18.2%
58.6%
+40.5 vs price
Under
1.04 · implied 96.2%
41.4%
-54.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
333 EUR · live
Under
1.15 · implied 87.0%
72.1%
-14.8 vs price
Over
5.5 · implied 18.2%
27.7%
+9.5 vs price
7 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
5'
⚽
A. Drinan · assist S. Negru1–0
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
E. Ahui ◂ R. Leak
55'
⚽
T. Sodje1–1
59'
L. Grant · Argument
61'
🔁
M. Virtue-Thick ◂ J. Hungbo
61'
🔁
L. Millard ◂ A. Hackford
62'
🔁
J. Snowdon ◂ O. Clarke
69'
🔁
C. Crew ◂ I. Moore
76'
🔁
J. Pearman ◂ A. Munda
77'
J. Ball · Foul
80'
🔁
K. A. M. Majekodunmi ◂ J. Ball
81'
🔁
J. Furlong ◂ M. Hancock
81'
🔁
L. Simper ◂ C. Clarke
85'
🔁
A. Dallas ◂ T. Sodje
Full-time · 1–1
Coaches
Ian HollowayLee Grant 
Recent form
Swindon TownLHCrewe Alexandra0-1
LARochdale0-1
DHAccrington Stanley1-1
LASalford City0-1
LAYork City0-4
WalsallDAFleetwood Town1-1
DATranmere Rovers1-1
WHPort Vale2-0
DHRochdale0-0
DAExeter City0-0
About this match
**Swindon's in freefall and Walsall's the steady hand here** — one's a disaster masterclass, the other's basically unbeaten. 🔴
Swindon's winless in five (four losses, one draw) and leaking goals at home. Walsall, meanwhile, are the draw kings: four draws in their last five with a shock 2-0 win over Port Vale thrown in. This looks like a mismatch on form.
Key storylines:
- **Swindon's home woes** vs **Walsall's road resilience** — the Reds haven't won at the County Ground all season, while Walsall are solid away from home
- **T. Nichols and A. Drinan** need to finally click in attack for Swindon, or they're looking at another blank
- **I. Moore and S. Sprangler** hold Walsall's midfield together and will likely control the tempo
Expected lineups:
- **Swindon Town**: C. Ripley, D. Butler, S. Negru, K. A. M. Majekodunmi, M. Clark, O. Clarke, A. Munda, J. Thomson, T. Nichols, A. Drinan, J. Hungbo
- **Walsall**: J. Ward, M. Hancock, J. Connolly, D. Skura, E. Ahui, I. Moore, S. Sprangler, R. Smith, L. Simper, A. Dallas, A. Pressley
Prediction:
**1-1 draw** — Swindon scrape a goal but can't sustain it. Walsall's draw curse strikes again. 🤝
Where to watch
Paramount+
Paramount+
Match facts
Kickoff
17 Oct, 14:00 UTC
Competition
League Two
Highlights & clips
Swindon Town
3-4-1-2 · 4-2-3-1
Walsall
1
C. Ripley
7.5
21
K. A. M. Majekodunmi
6.6
↑ 80'
5
S. Negru
8.0
19
J. Snowdon
6.9
↑ 62'
2
M. Clark
7.6
25
J. Thomson
7.1
22
J. Pearman
6.7
↑ 76'
34
B. Kirkman
7.9
24
M. Virtue-Thick
6.5
↑ 61'
39
L. Millard
6.6
↑ 61'
23
A. Drinan
7.3
1
J. Ward
7.0
25
D. Skura
7.0
4
J. Connolly
7.5
22
E. Ahui
7.1
↑ 46'
29
J. Furlong
6.9
↑ 81'
6
S. Sprangler
6.6
8
C. Crew
6.9
↑ 69'
10
L. Simper
6.5
↑ 81'
9
A. Dallas
6.5
↑ 85'
11
R. Smith
7.7
19
A. Pressley
7.4
Substitutes
12GL. Ward
6DJ. Ball↓ 80'6.6
27MA. Munda↓ 76'6.8
8MO. Clarke↓ 62'6.5
7MT. Nichols
15FJ. Hungbo↓ 61'6.7
29FA. Hackford↓ 61'6.2
Coach: Ian Holloway
Substitutes
31GT. Wooster
3DM. Hancock↓ 81'6.8
26DR. Leak↓ 46'6.3
17MC. Clarke↓ 81'7.8
15MI. Moore↓ 69'6.7
7FT. Sodje↓ 85'6.1
37FA. Adomah
Coach: Lee Grant
Top stats
38%Possession62%
2.12Expected goals (xG)1.95
17Total shots18
5Shots on target8
1Big chances1
2Corners10
Shots
8Shots off target8
4Blocked shots2
10Shots inside box14
7Shots outside box4
1Big chances scored1
Attack
26Touches in box46
56Final third entries57
1Offsides4
9Free kicks5
Passing
289Passes460
179Accurate passes345
22/67 (33%)Long balls33/63 (52%)
3/13 (23%)Crosses8/36 (22%)
31Throw-ins35
Duels
45Duels55
34/74 (46%)Ground duels40/74 (54%)
26/58 (45%)Aerial duels32/58 (55%)
4/12 (33%)Dribbles19/35 (54%)
8Dispossessed6
Defending
22Tackles16
64Tackles won69
15Interceptions13
44Clearances23
60Recoveries60
Discipline
5Fouls9
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
7Saves4
1Big saves0
14Goal kicks12
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
CornersOver 10.5 corners 51% · 1.80 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 9.5 corners 61% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 72% · 1.22 @ 1xBet
1X2Walsall to win 39% · 2.80 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 59% · 2.76 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.70 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.89 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 26% · 2.60 @ Bet365
Who winsSwindon to win (DNB) 55% · 2.00 @ Betway
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.45 @ BetVictor
1X2Swindon to win 35% · 2.95 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.66
Swindon Town
3.55
Draw
2.40
Walsall
Double Chanceconsensus
1.51
Swindon Town or Draw
1.27
Swindon Town or Walsall
1.42
Draw or Walsall
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.55
Yes
2.30
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
13.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50
4.33
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.66
Over 2.50
2.15
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.62
Over 3.50
1.44
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
5.00
Over 4.50
1.17
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.95
Swindon Town
1.76
Walsall
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.07
Over 7.50
5.37
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.22
Over 8.50
3.47
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.48
Over 9.50
2.47
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
1.76
Over 10.50
1.95
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.23
Over 11.50
1.58
Under 11.50
1X2 (1st Half)consensus
3.20
Swindon Town
2.25
Draw
2.88
Walsall
1X2 (2nd Half)consensus
2.90
Swindon Town
2.58
Draw
2.75
Walsall
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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