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Alessio Dionisi
Watford
Crawley Town
Watford
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Crawley Town
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
285349 EUR · live
Home
1.02 · implied 98.0%
84.5%
-13.5 vs price
Draw
60.0 · implied 1.7%
13.1%
+11.4 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
2.5%
+2.4 vs price
Half time
969 EUR · live
Home
2.06 · implied 48.5%
89.1%
+40.6 vs price
Away
14.0 · implied 7.1%
7.3%
+0.2 vs price
Draw
2.88 · implied 34.7%
3.5%
-31.2 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
13303 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
73.4%
-25.6 vs price
Over
60.0 · implied 1.7%
26.6%
+24.9 vs price
8 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
24'
E. Bove · Foul
Half-time · 0–0
46'
🔁
A. Nabizada ◂ K. Baah
56'
🔁
P. Aderoju ◂ G. D. Biase
62'
C. Barker · Foul
63'
I. Bravo · Argument
64'
🔁
O. Kamara ◂ M. Ebiowei
67'
K. Gordon · Foul
68'
🔁
M. Doumbia ◂ L. Kjerrumgaard
68'
🔁
E. Kayembe ◂ E. Bove
69'
🔁
M. Payero ◂ I. Bravo
76'
🔁
J. Russell ◂ A. Adeyemo
76'
🔁
O. Mrisho ◂ K. Gordon
76'
🔁
P. Arganese-McDermott ◂ A. Odimayo
77'
🔁
R. Vata ◂ O. Maamma
Full-time · 1–0
90'+7
P. Aderoju · Foul
90'+9
⚽
M. Bola1–0
Coaches
Alessio DionisiColin Kazim-Richards 
Recent form
WatfordLHFiorentina0-1
WHFC Hansa Rostock3-0
DABarnet2-2
LABoreham Wood1-2
LHCoventry City0-4
Crawley TownWAYork City2-0
LHReading0-1
LAOxford United1-3
WAEastleigh1-0
DHSalford City0-0
Match facts
Highlights & clips
Watford
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Crawley Town
1
F. Ravaglia
7.7
23
O. Traore
7.1
6
M. Pollock
7.6
4
K. K. Biakolo
7.2
16
M. Bola
8.9
39
E. Kayembe
7.0
↑ 68'
5
H. Kyprianou
7.7
21
A. Nabizada
7.3
↑ 46'
22
M. Payero
6.8
↑ 69'
11
R. Vata
6.9
↑ 77'
20
M. Doumbia
6.6
↑ 68'
1
V. Mannone
9.0
4
P. Arganese-McDermott
6.4
↑ 76'
16
J. Russell
6.7
↑ 76'
5
C. Barker
7.9
33
O. Mrisho
6.3
↑ 76'
20
J. Arthurs
7.1
25
K. Krasniqi
6.8
17
O. Kamara
6.2
↑ 64'
8
L. Watson
6.1
10
S. Duke-McKenna
6.7
11
P. Aderoju
6.6
↑ 56'
Substitutes
26GD. Bachmann
53DJ. Clarridge
7MO. Maamma↓ 77'7.9
8ME. Bove↓ 68'6.3
33MJ. Zemura
10MI. Louza
17FI. Bravo↓ 69'6.8
9FL. Kjerrumgaard↓ 68'6.5
14FK. Baah↓ 46'6.4
Coach: Alessio Dionisi
Substitutes
13GN. Michalski
24DA. Odimayo↓ 76'7.2
22MA. Adeyemo↓ 76'8.3
2MK. Gordon↓ 76'6.4
7MM. Ebiowei↓ 64'6.3
56MJ. Robertson
28MN. Tinsdale
14FG. D. Biase↓ 56'6.8
9FD. Orsi-Dadomo
Coach: Colin Kazim-Richards
Top stats
61%Possession39%
0.0Expected goals (xG)0.0
36Total shots9
11Shots on target3
7Big chances1
12Corners1
Shots
12Shots off target3
13Blocked shots3
25Shots inside box7
11Shots outside box2
1Hit woodwork0
7Big chances missed1
Attack
61Touches in box13
53Final third entries42
2Offsides2
13Free kicks11
0Fouled in final third1
Passing
464Passes294
392Accurate passes223
34/57 (60%)Long balls16/53 (30%)
6/26 (23%)Crosses3/14 (21%)
26Throw-ins16
Duels
52Duels48
48/93 (52%)Ground duels45/93 (48%)
17/32 (53%)Aerial duels15/32 (47%)
18/35 (51%)Dribbles4/13 (31%)
13Dispossessed8
Defending
17Tackles30
65Tackles won53
11Interceptions11
25Clearances38
52Recoveries42
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
3Saves10
7Goal kicks13
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 68 bookmakers
1X2Watford to win 74% · 1.61 @ Novibet
Who winsWatford to win (DNB) 87% · 1.16 @ merkurxtip
CornersOver 9.5 corners 62% · 1.67 @ Bet365
CornersOver 10.5 corners 51% · 1.91 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 72% · 1.39 @ fonbet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 62% · 1.82 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.26 @ Bet365
BTTSBTTS: No 51% · 2.20 @ 888Sport
1X2Draw 17% · 3.45 @ kto
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 59% · 1.65 @ BetMGM.uk
1X2Crawley to win 10% · 8.00 @ efbet.net
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.26
Watford
5.61
Draw
9.33
Crawley Town
Double Chanceconsensus
1.05
Watford or Draw
1.13
Watford or Crawley Town
3.51
Draw or Crawley Town
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.91
Yes
1.81
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50 ▼
10.42
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.14
Over 1.50
5.00
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.49
Over 2.50
2.45
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.24
Over 3.50
1.59
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
3.90
Over 4.50
1.24
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.07
Watford
7.40
Crawley Town
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.06
Over 6.50
8.00
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.11
Over 7.50 ▲
5.38
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.38
Over 8.50 ▲
2.73
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.47
Over 9.50 ▲
2.43
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
1.83
Over 10.50 ▼
1.86
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.25
Over 11.50 ▲
1.56
Under 11.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 12.50consensus
2.97
Over 12.50 ▲
1.33
Under 12.50 ▼
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Watford to win or draw
✓
90% confidence
Watford to avoid defeat
✓
87% confidence
Over 1.5 goals
✗
81% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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