Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
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Moreno
Felgueiras
Penafiel**Penafiel's looking like the real deal in Liga Portugal 2** — three wins in five, thumping FC Porto B and Sporting CP B to boot. Felgueiras, meanwhile, are stuck in neutral with one win and three draws. 🔴
The hosts' draw-heavy form is either a sign of solidity or a lack of killer instinct — hard to say. But Penafiel's been ruthless on the road lately, and they've got a 2–1 H2H edge in their last four meetings.
Key storylines:
- **Penafiel's away form** is the real story here — three straight road wins show serious character
- **Felgueiras' frontline** (Michel and L. Duarte) need to break through; one win in five at home is worrying
- **Penafiel's attack** (Davo, A. Schutte, M. Svensson) has been clinical and will punish any defensive slips
Expected lineups:
- **Felgueiras**: F. Scheibig, S. Castro, A. Freitas, Dudu, J. Fernandes, F. França, H. Martins, Landinho
- **Penafiel**: J. Femenías, J. Sánchez, C. Silva, T. Alloh, G. Negrão, P. Sá, Davo, A. Schutte
Prediction:
**Penafiel 2–0 Felgueiras**. Away form too strong, Felgueiras lack the cutting edge. Lean Penafiel. ⚪
Felgueiras
4-4-2 · 3-4-3
Penafiel
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
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