Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves.

90+5'

M. Borges

Attempt saved. M. Borges (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

90+5'

Danny

Attempt missed. Danny (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

90+5'

M. Borges

Goal! Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves. M. Borges (Lusitânia Lourosa) scores.

90'

8 minutes of added time.

90'

J. Silva

Attempt saved. J. Silva (Lusitânia Lourosa), header. xG 0.19.

88'

K. Pereira

Yellow card for K. Pereira (Chaves).

86'

Paulité

Substitution, Lusitânia Lourosa: Danny comes on for Paulité.

85'

M. Teixeira

Attempt missed. M. Teixeira (Lusitânia Lourosa), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

82'

I. Moreira

Attempt saved. I. Moreira (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

80'

R. Esajas

Substitution, Chaves: K. Pereira comes on for R. Esajas.

78'

Ricardinho

Substitution, Lusitânia Lourosa: J. Silva comes on for Ricardinho.

78'

J. Santos

Substitution, Lusitânia Lourosa: I. Moreira comes on for J. Santos.

73'

P. Pelágio

Attempt saved. P. Pelágio (Chaves), header. xG 0.03.

69'

W. Tavares

Substitution, Chaves: G. Souza comes on for W. Tavares.

69'

A. Rodrigues

Substitution, Chaves: P. Pelágio comes on for A. Rodrigues.

69'

N. Araujo

Substitution, Chaves: M. Tounkara comes on for N. Araujo.

66'

D. Collard

Attempt missed. D. Collard (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

65'

M. Borges

Attempt saved. M. Borges (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.28.

60'

S. Mandiang

Substitution, Lusitânia Lourosa: M. Borges comes on for S. Mandiang.

60'

A. Nunes

Substitution, Lusitânia Lourosa: M. Teixeira comes on for A. Nunes.

60'

Costinha

Substitution, Chaves: M. Andre comes on for Costinha.

59'

F. Machado

Attempt missed. F. Machado (Lusitânia Lourosa), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

56'

B. Faria

Attempt blocked. B. Faria (Lusitânia Lourosa), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.12.

55'

J. Santos

Attempt missed. J. Santos (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

49'

S. Mandiang

Attempt blocked. S. Mandiang (Lusitânia Lourosa), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Lusitânia Lourosa 0-1 Chaves.

45+3'

A. Nunes

Attempt blocked. A. Nunes (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

45+2'

J. Valido

Yellow card for J. Valido (Chaves).

45'

1 minute of added time.

44'

A. Rodrigues

Goal! Lusitânia Lourosa 0-1 Chaves. A. Rodrigues (Chaves) scores.

42'

J. Santos

Attempt missed. J. Santos (Lusitânia Lourosa), header from a corner. xG 0.50.

40'

S. Mandiang

Attempt missed. S. Mandiang (Lusitânia Lourosa), header. xG 0.17.

37'

A. Tavares

Attempt missed. A. Tavares (Chaves), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

34'

D. Collard

Attempt missed. D. Collard (Lusitânia Lourosa), header from a set piece. xG 0.17.

30'

J. Santos

Yellow card for J. Santos (Lusitânia Lourosa).

27'

Costinha

Attempt saved. Costinha (Chaves), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

25'

Fabinho

Attempt saved. Fabinho (Lusitânia Lourosa), header. xG 0.10.

23'

R. Esajas

Attempt missed. R. Esajas (Chaves), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

22'

T. Simões

Attempt missed. T. Simões (Chaves), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

22'

R. Esajas

Attempt missed. R. Esajas (Chaves), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

22'

Fabinho

Attempt missed. Fabinho (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

16'

S. Mandiang

Attempt saved. S. Mandiang (Lusitânia Lourosa), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

15'

R. Esajas

Attempt saved. R. Esajas (Chaves), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

14'

T. Simões

Attempt saved. T. Simões (Chaves), header from a set piece. xG 0.02.

12'

T. Simões

Yellow card for T. Simões (Chaves).

9'

S. Mandiang

Attempt missed. S. Mandiang (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

7'

Ricardinho

Yellow card for Ricardinho (Lusitânia Lourosa).

6'

S. Mandiang

Attempt missed. S. Mandiang (Lusitânia Lourosa), right-footed shot. xG 0.12.

4'

W. Tavares

Attempt missed. W. Tavares (Chaves), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.07.

2'

W. Tavares

Attempt blocked. W. Tavares (Chaves), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.06.

2'

G. García

Attempt saved. G. García (Chaves), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

1'

Kick-off: Lusitânia Lourosa vs Chaves.

Where the money is

159528 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 88498 EUR · live

Away 28.0 · implied 3.6%

49.7%

+46.1 vs price

Home 34.0 · implied 2.9%

30.7%

+27.8 vs price

Draw 1.07 · implied 93.5%

19.6%

-73.8 vs price

Half time 1060 EUR · live

Away 5.4 · implied 18.5%

54.7%

+36.2 vs price

Home 4.3 · implied 23.3%

22.7%

-0.5 vs price

Draw 1.71 · implied 58.5%

22.4%

-36.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 18660 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

77.6%

-21.4 vs price

Over 17.5 · implied 5.7%

22.4%

+16.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 232 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

74.7%

-23.3 vs price

Over 12.0 · implied 8.3%

25.0%

+16.7 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Match events

7' Ricardinho

12' T. Simões

30' J. Santos

44' ⚽ A. Rodrigues0–1

Half-time · 0–1

45'⁺² J. Valido

60' 🔁 M. Andre ◂ Costinha

60' 🔁 M. Teixeira ◂ A. Nunes

60' 🔁 M. Borges ◂ S. Mandiang

69' 🔁 M. Tounkara ◂ N. Araujo

69' 🔁 P. Pelágio ◂ A. Rodrigues

69' 🔁 G. Souza ◂ W. Tavares

78' 🔁 I. Moreira ◂ J. Santos

78' 🔁 J. Silva ◂ Ricardinho

80' 🔁 K. Pereira ◂ R. Esajas

86' 🔁 Danny ◂ Paulité

88' K. Pereira

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺⁵ ⚽ M. Borges1–1

Coaches

Ricardo Salvador Macedo Silva

Vitor Martins

Recent form

Lusitânia Lourosa

WAFC Madalena3-1

WASporting CP B2-1

WHAVS - Futebol SAD2-1

WAAcadémica Coimbra2-0

DHTorreense2-2

Chaves

LASC Farense0-4

LHVitória SC0-1

WAGuarda FC3-2

WHFeirense1-0

LAFelgueiras1-2

About this match

**Lusitânia Lourosa is absolutely rolling right now** — four wins in their last five games, while **Chaves are lurching between flashes of brilliance and sobering blowouts**. Home side should fancy this one. ⚽

Lourosa's form is genuinely scary: they've won consecutive road games against Sporting CP B and AVS, beating them comfortably. Chaves just shipped four to Farense and looked lost against Vitória; they need a reset badly.

Key storylines:

- **Lusitânia's attack** (led by **J. Santos** and **J. Silva** up top) have momentum and a settled rhythm after back-to-back wins away
- **Chaves' defensive frailty** — **K. Pereira**, **M. Tounkara**, and **R. Alves** have conceded heavily in recent weeks and face a side that scores freely
- **H2H intrigue**: draws dominate their last three meetings, though Lourosa have the upper hand in this cycle's form

Expected lineups:

- **Lusitânia Lourosa**: G. Souza, F. Machado, B. Faria, Guilherme, Ricardinho, D. Paulo, A. Montez, Fabinho, J. Santos, J. Silva
- **Chaves**: J. Valido, K. Pereira, M. Tounkara, R. Alves, L. Alaba, G. García, A. Rodrigues, Costinha, Roberto, R. Esajas

Prediction:

**Lusitânia 2–1 Chaves**. Home fortress, hot form, and Chaves' leaky backline make this a lean toward the hosts. 🔥

Where to watch

Sport TV1

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa FC

City

Lourosa

Referee

David Rafael Oliveira da Silva

6.14 yellows/match · 43 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 10:00 UTC

Competition

Liga Portugal 2

Highlights & clips

Lusitânia Lourosa 4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3 Chaves

29 B. Araújo 9 J. Silva ↑ 78' 4 D. Collard 22 B. Faria 52 F. Machado 20 D. Paulo 88 M. Teixeira ↑ 60' 7 M. Borges ↑ 60' 27 Fabinho 60 Danny ↑ 86' 90 I. Moreira ↑ 78' 1 J. Valido 23 L. Alaba 33 T. Simões 34 R. Alves 29 M. Tounkara ↑ 69' 42 A. Tavares 19 G. García 11 P. Pelágio ↑ 69' 9 M. Andre ↑ 60' 99 G. Souza ↑ 69' 5 K. Pereira ↑ 80'

Substitutes

24DRicardinho↓ 78' 16DL. Rocha 5DS. Junio 42DGuilherme 12MA. Nunes↓ 60' 19MS. Mandiang↓ 60' 80MManel 6MA. Montez 17FJ. Santos↓ 78' 21FPaulité↓ 86' 1FG. Souza↑ 69' 11FM. Tablante

Coach: Ricardo Salvador Macedo Silva

Substitutes

88GM. Gudžulić 14DN. Araujo↓ 69' 13DI. Vázquez 10MA. Rodrigues↓ 69' 8MJ. Teixeira 80MM. Fofana 16MD. Yearwood 30FCostinha↓ 60' 18FW. Tavares↓ 69' 7FR. Esajas↓ 80' 17FRoberto 27FJ. Mendes

Coach: Vitor Martins

Top stats

2.24Expected goals (xG, estimated)0.41

Discipline

2Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers

Lusitânia 40%

30%

Chaves 30%

Who winsLusitânia to win (DNB) 70% · 1.58 @ Betsson

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 55% · 1.14 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 30% · 2.37 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.27 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 67% · 1.42 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 57% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 55% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.75 @ Bet365

1X2Chaves to win 30% · 3.50 @ 1xBet

1X2Lusitânia to win 40% · 3.00 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 70% · 2.25 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.25

Lusitânia Lourosa

3.10

Draw

3.00

Chaves

Double Chanceconsensus

1.33

Lusitânia Lourosa or Draw

1.33

Lusitânia Lourosa or Chaves

1.53

Draw or Chaves

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.80

Yes

1.90

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.05

Over 0.50

8.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.34

Over 1.50

3.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.07

Over 2.50

1.70

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.75

Over 3.50

1.25

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

8.00

Over 4.50

1.06

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.53

Lusitânia Lourosa

2.30

Chaves

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.30

Over 7.50

3.00

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.60

Over 8.50

2.21

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.99

Over 9.50

1.75

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.56

Over 10.50

1.42

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.54

Over 11.50

1.21

Under 11.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

3.00

Lusitânia Lourosa

2.05

Draw

3.60

Chaves

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.75

Lusitânia Lourosa

2.33

Draw

3.10

Chaves

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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