União de Leiria 0-2 Académica Coimbra: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. União de Leiria 0-2 Académica Coimbra.

90+2'

S. Ntanda

Attempt missed. S. Ntanda (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

88'

M. Paulo

Attempt saved. M. Paulo (Académica Coimbra), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

88'

P. Fernández

Attempt blocked. P. Fernández (União de Leiria), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

88'

Coquinho

Attempt saved. Coquinho (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

88'

A. Rodrigues

Substitution, Académica Coimbra: I. Faure comes on for A. Rodrigues.

86'

J. d. Silva

Attempt missed. J. d. Silva (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

85'

P. Fernández

Attempt missed. P. Fernández (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

85'

A. Rodrigues

Yellow card for A. Rodrigues (Académica Coimbra).

85'

I. Guirassy

Yellow card for I. Guirassy (União de Leiria).

82'

M. Baró

Attempt missed. M. Baró (União de Leiria), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

81'

Jaiminho

Substitution, União de Leiria: S. Ntanda comes on for Jaiminho.

78'

M. Paulo

Attempt missed. M. Paulo (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

77'

A. Mané

Attempt blocked. A. Mané (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

75'

Maga

Yellow card for Maga (União de Leiria).

70'

A. Mané

Attempt missed. A. Mané (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

70'

L. Silva

Substitution, Académica Coimbra: H. Nunes comes on for L. Silva.

70'

L. Zohi

Substitution, Académica Coimbra: R. Gomes comes on for L. Zohi.

69'

L. Silva

Attempt saved. L. Silva (Académica Coimbra), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

68'

A. Coundoul

Attempt saved. A. Coundoul (Académica Coimbra), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

68'

D. Loppy

Attempt saved. D. Loppy (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

67'

Z. Pedro

Substitution, União de Leiria: J. d. Silva comes on for Z. Pedro.

66'

J. N. Ondo

Substitution, União de Leiria: D. Loppy comes on for J. N. Ondo.

64'

P. Fernández

Off the woodwork! P. Fernández (União de Leiria), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.61.

62'

J. Muñoz

Attempt missed. J. Muñoz (União de Leiria), header. xG 0.14.

60'

L. Silva

Attempt missed. L. Silva (Académica Coimbra), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

60'

A. Mané

Attempt missed. A. Mané (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

60'

L. Pierre

Substitution, Académica Coimbra: M. Paulo comes on for L. Pierre.

59'

Marcelo

Attempt missed. Marcelo (União de Leiria), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

58'

Marcelo

Attempt blocked. Marcelo (União de Leiria), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

57'

J. Muñoz

Attempt blocked. J. Muñoz (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

55'

J. N. Ondo

Attempt saved. J. N. Ondo (União de Leiria), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

54'

Kaka

Substitution, Académica Coimbra: A. Mané comes on for Kaka.

53'

J. N. Ondo

Attempt blocked. J. N. Ondo (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

53'

P. Fernández

Attempt saved. P. Fernández (União de Leiria), header. xG 0.15.

49'

L. Zohi

Goal! União de Leiria 0-2 Académica Coimbra. L. Zohi (Académica Coimbra) scores, assisted by A. Coundoul.

46'

H. Masaki

Substitution, União de Leiria: M. Baró comes on for H. Masaki.

46'

K. Eboue

Substitution, União de Leiria: Tharlley comes on for K. Eboue.

46'

R. Teixeira

Substitution, Académica Coimbra: Ni comes on for R. Teixeira.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. União de Leiria 0-1 Académica Coimbra.

45+4'

A. Rodrigues

Attempt missed. A. Rodrigues (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

45'

5 minutes of added time.

43'

A. Coundoul

Attempt saved. A. Coundoul (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

41'

H. Masaki

Attempt missed. H. Masaki (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

36'

L. Silva

Goal! União de Leiria 0-1 Académica Coimbra. L. Silva (Académica Coimbra) converts the penalty.

27'

A. Rodrigues

Attempt missed. A. Rodrigues (Académica Coimbra), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

22'

A. Coundoul

Attempt missed. A. Coundoul (Académica Coimbra), header from a corner. xG 0.14.

14'

A. Coundoul

Attempt blocked. A. Coundoul (Académica Coimbra), header. xG 0.09.

13'

L. Zohi

Attempt blocked. L. Zohi (Académica Coimbra), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

7'

P. Fernández

Attempt blocked. P. Fernández (União de Leiria), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

6'

J. N. Ondo

Attempt blocked. J. N. Ondo (União de Leiria), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

2'

R. Teixeira

Yellow card for R. Teixeira (Académica Coimbra).

1'

Kick-off: União de Leiria vs Académica Coimbra.

Where the money is

187522 EUR matched · captured 1 month ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 62469 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

69.4%

-29.6 vs price

Home 980.0 · implied 0.1%

24.6%

+24.5 vs price

Draw 19.0 · implied 5.3%

6.5%

+1.2 vs price

Half time 363 EUR · live

Away 4.3 · implied 23.3%

88.4%

+65.1 vs price

Home 4.1 · implied 24.4%

10.5%

-13.9 vs price

Draw 1.87 · implied 53.5%

0.8%

-52.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 63958 EUR · live

Under 1.04 · implied 96.2%

68.0%

-28.2 vs price

Over 22.0 · implied 4.5%

32.0%

+27.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 605 EUR · live

Under 1.1 · implied 90.9%

94.8%

+3.9 vs price

Over 55.0 · implied 1.8%

5.1%

+3.3 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Match events

2' R. Teixeira

36' ⚽ L. Silva (pen)0–1

Half-time · 0–1

46' 🔁 Ni ◂ R. Teixeira

46' 🔁 Tharlley ◂ K. Eboue

46' 🔁 M. Baró ◂ H. Masaki

49' ⚽ L. Zohi · assist A. Coundoul0–2

54' 🔁 A. Mané ◂ Kaka

60' 🔁 M. Paulo ◂ L. Pierre

66' 🔁 D. Loppy ◂ J. N. Ondo

67' 🔁 J. d. Silva ◂ Z. Pedro

70' 🔁 R. Gomes ◂ L. Zohi

70' 🔁 H. Nunes ◂ L. Silva

75' Maga

81' 🔁 S. Ntanda ◂ Jaiminho

85' I. Guirassy

85' A. Rodrigues

88' 🔁 I. Faure ◂ A. Rodrigues

Full-time · 0–2

Coaches

Fábio Pereira

Antonio Barbosa

Recent form

União de Leiria

WAO Elvas CAD2-0

DAAmarante FC2-2

WHPortimonense SAD1-0

WHTondela2-0

WALeixões SC4-2

Académica Coimbra

WAReal SC4-1

LHSL Benfica B0-3

LAPenafiel1-4

LHLusitânia Lourosa0-2

WATondela2-0

About this match

**Form is doing the talking here** — União rolls in with four wins in five, while Académica's been all over the place: one dominant performance sandwiched between two heavy losses. 🔥

União's at home with serious momentum, and that matters on the road to a promotion push. Académica are dangerous (see that 4-1 rout of Real SC), but inconsistency is killing them. H2H leans slight edge to the hosts across 12 meetings.

Key storylines:

- **União's defensive spine** (Marcelo, Baró, A. Lottin) has been rock-solid; they're shipping goals at a miserly rate right now
- **Académica's attacking flashes** — A. Mané and M. Tavares can be lethal on the break, but only when the midfield clicks
- **Home fortress**: União unbeaten at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa in this stretch; Académica traveling with baggage

Expected lineups:

- **União de Leiria**: J. Odehnal, M. Baró, Marcelo, A. Lottin, D. Amado, D. Martins, K. Eboue, P. Fernández, J. Muñoz
- **Académica Coimbra**: C. Alves, H. Lopes, G. Silva, Kauan, A. Rodrigues, H. Nunes, A. Mané, M. Tavares, R. Gomes

Prediction:

**União 2–1 Académica**

Home form + momentum edge gives the hosts a slight lean, though Académica's capable of nicking one on the counter.

Where to watch

Sport TV4

Match facts

Stadium

Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa

City

Leiria

Referee

Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca

5.14 yellows/match · 37 matches

Kickoff

11 Oct, 17:00 UTC

Competition

Liga Portugal 2

Highlights & clips

União de Leiria 4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1 Académica Coimbra

99 J. Odehnal 68 Maga 44 Marcelo 11 J. d. Silva ↑ 67' 3 M. Baró ↑ 46' 82 S. Ntanda ↑ 81' 18 Tharlley ↑ 46' 98 I. Guirassy 29 D. Loppy ↑ 66' 17 P. Fernández 9 J. Muñoz 12 V. Braga 2 X. Grande 54 Ni ↑ 46' 4 G. Silva 7 A. Mané ↑ 54' 20 J. Sinisterra 17 M. Paulo ↑ 60' 10 I. Faure ↑ 88' 46 H. Nunes ↑ 70' 23 R. Gomes ↑ 70' 92 A. Coundoul

Substitutes

80GC. Sanchez 70DH. Masaki↓ 46' 16DZ. Pedro↓ 67' 42DT. Caturra 6MK. Eboue↓ 46' 8MReko 25MD. Amado 88MD. Martins 18MCoquinho 7FJ. N. Ondo↓ 66' 21FJaiminho↓ 81' 79FP. Oliveira

Coach: Fábio Pereira

Substitutes

1GN. Macedo 98GC. Alves 3DR. Teixeira↓ 46' 15DKaka↓ 54' 13DKauan 25ML. Pierre↓ 60' 5ML. Silva↓ 70' 19MA. Rodrigues↓ 88' 60MJ. Oliveira 26MT. Soares 8FL. Zohi↓ 70' 9FM. Tavares

Coach: Antonio Barbosa

Top stats

1.58Expected goals (xG, estimated)1.88

Discipline

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 22 bookmakers

Leiria 48%

27%

Académica 24%

1X2Leiria to win 48% · 2.30 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 54% · 3.40 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 27% · 2.50 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 51% · 4.60 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.52 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 2.10 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.88 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.34 @ Pinnacle

1X2Académica to win 24% · 4.06 @ 1xBet

Who winsLeiria to win (DNB) 51% · 1.47 @ Betano

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.91

União de Leiria

3.40

Draw

3.65

Académica Coimbra

Double Chanceconsensus

1.23

União de Leiria or Draw

1.26

União de Leiria or Académica Coimbra

1.83

Draw or Académica Coimbra

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.71

Yes

2.00

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

10.40

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.25

Over 1.50

3.68

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.87

Over 2.50

1.90

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.20

Over 3.50

1.30

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.50

Over 4.50

1.08

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.41

União de Leiria

2.65

Académica Coimbra

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.24

Over 7.50

3.38

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.50

Over 8.50

2.39

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.85

Over 9.50

1.88

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.35

Over 10.50

1.52

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.10

Over 11.50

1.28

Under 11.50

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.48

União de Leiria

2.20

Draw

4.33

Académica Coimbra

1X2 (2nd Half)consensus

2.25

União de Leiria

2.50

Draw

3.80

Académica Coimbra

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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