Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Lusitânia Lourosa roll in hot** — **4W in their last 5** while Felgueiras are stuck in neutral with mixed form and home-ground nerves. This is a classic David vs. momentum clash. 🔥
Felgueiras have shown they can grind wins at home (beat Fafe 1-0), but that loss to Benfica B exposed cracks. Lourosa's just different right now — three straight victories before that draw with Chaves, and they're clicking on the road. Head-to-head is level at 3-3, so no historical edge either way.
Key storylines:
- **Lourosa's attack** has been prolific; **J. Silva** and the front line could trouble **Felgueiras' backline** if **A. Freitas** and **J. R. Pinto** get caught flat
- **Michel** and **L. Duarte** up top need to be sharp for Felgueiras; one clinical moment might be the difference
- Midfield battle: **F. França** and **A. Peixoto** anchoring Felgueiras against **D. Paulo** and **Ricardinho**'s press
Expected lineups:
- **Felgueiras**: F. Scheibig, A. Freitas, J. R. Pinto, Dudu, F. Cruz, A. Peixoto, F. França, H. Martins, Michel, L. Duarte, M. Rivas
- **Lusitânia Lourosa**: G. Souza, F. Machado, B. Faria, Guilherme, Ricardinho, D. Paulo, Fabinho, A. Nunes, A. Montez, J. Santos, J. Silva
Prediction:
**1-2 to Lourosa**. Form is king, and they've got momentum on their side — lean Lourosa's road record and Felgueiras' inconsistency. ⚪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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