Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Mjällby host Elfsborg in a dead-rubber midtable clash** — both teams hovering around the business end of Allsvenskan with nothing left to lose and everything to prove. 🔥
Mjällby's form is fractionally tidier (1W-2D-2L) and they've got the home fortress advantage at Strandvallen, but Elfsborg just toppled Malmö and have a habit of springing surprises. The head-to-head is a perfect split — 3-3-4 in the last decade — so expect a cagey, competitive 90.
Key storylines:
- **Mjällby's attacking trio** of Á. Samuelsen, E. Stroud, and J. Kjaer need to make home turf count against a wobbling Elfsborg backline
- **Elfsborg missing P. Frick** (broken ankle) removes a key outlet; meanwhile **Mjällby** are without J. Gustavsson and V. Gustafson through suspensions
- **T. Pettersson** anchoring Mjällby's midfield will be crucial to controlling tempo in a 3-4-3 setup
Expected lineups:
- **Mjällby AIF**: R. Wallinder, A. Norén, T. Miettinen, L. Svanberg, T. Pettersson, V. Granath, E. Stroud, Á. Samuelsen, J. Kjaer
- **IF Elfsborg**: I. Pettersson, T. Isherwood, N. Hult, S. Holmén, J. Magnusson, J. Beck, S. Olsson, A. Sigurpálsson, F. Ihler
Prediction:
**Mjällby 1-1 IF Elfsborg**. Home edge + slightly better form gives Mjällby a slight lean, but Elfsborg's grit keeps it level.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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