Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**AIK is rolling, Mjällby is in freefall** — the Strawberry Arena should see the hosts absolutely dominant here. 🍓
AIK have won 3 of their last 5 with a convincing derby victory over Hammarby sandwiched in there, while Mjällby just can't catch a break — one draw and four losses across their recent stretch. The head-to-head stats speak volumes: AIK's 11 wins to Mjällby's 4 over 23 meetings tells you everything about the pecking order.
Key storylines:
- **AIK's attacking depth** with Y. Geiger and L. Carlstrand leading the line should feast on a Mjällby backline that's leaked goals consistently
- **Mjällby's injury woes** with T. Stavitski out mean their setup is further compromised; they'll be battling uphill
- **Home fortress vibes** — AIK's form at the Strawberry Arena (3-2 vs Hammarby at home) suggests another commanding performance
Expected lineups:
- **AIK**: K. Nordfeldt, H. Matthys, W. Olofsson, D. Tomas, L. Bergquist, J. Hove, A. Ali, A. Kouame, Y. Geiger, L. Carlstrand, S. Gustafsson
- **Mjällby AIF**: S. Hansen, A. Iqbal, A. Norén, T. Pettersson, M. Nielsen, T. Miettinen, J. Gustavsson, V. Granath, J. Bergström, J. Kjaer, Á. Samuelsen
Prediction:
**AIK 3-1 Mjällby AIF**. Home side's slight favorite here — they should control possession and put the visitors to bed early. ⚽
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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