Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match prediction BSD model
Both Teams to Score
BTTS Yes 78% · Pick: BTTS Yes
Total Goals 1.5
Over 1.5 goals 94% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 78%
Total Goals 3.5
Over 3.5 goals 47%
Timeline
⚽C. Ronaldo
42'
M. Brozović
53'
⚽S. Al-Dawsari (pen)
57'
R. Neves
58'
N. Al-Aqidi
60'
🔁M. Al-Buainain ◂ Ângelo
63'
A. Al-Khaibari
65'
🔁A. Al-Hassan ◂ M. Simakan
72'
🔁P. Marí ◂ M. Al-Harbi
76'
🔁M. Kanno ◂ N. Al-Dawsari
76'
⚽M. Kanno
81'
🔁Wesley ◂ C. Ronaldo
83'
🔁S. Al-Ghannam ◂ A. Yahya
83'
🔁A. Lajami ◂ H. A. Tambakti
90'
🔁S. Mandash ◂ D. Núñez
90'
🔁M. Leonardo ◂ Malcom
90'
⚽R. Neves (pen)
90'
Coaches
Simone InzaghiJorge Jesus 
Recent form
Al-HilalWAl-Hilal3-0Al-Hazem
WDamac FC0-2Al-Hilal
WAl-Kholood1-3Al-Hilal
WAl-Hilal3-2Al-Khaleej
WAl-Hilal2-1Al-Fateh
Al-NassrLAl-Nassr1-2Al-Qadsiah
LAl-Ahli3-2Al-Nassr
DAl-Ettifaq2-2Al-Nassr
WAl-Nassr3-0Al-Okhdood
WAl-Nassr4-1Al-Khaleej
Match facts
Stadium
Kingdom Arena
City
Riyadh
Referee
François Letexier
Kickoff
12 Jan, 17:30 UTC
Al-Hilal
3-4-3 · 4-4-1-1
Al-Nassr
17
M. Al-Yami
6.7
87
H. A. Tambakti
7.2
8
R. Neves
7.9
24
M. Al-Harbi
6.7
88
H. A. Yami
6.9
22
S. Milinković-Savić
7.3
16
N. Al-Dawsari
6.4
19
T. Hernández
6.4
10
Malcom
7.2
7
D. Núñez
6.5
29
S. Al-Dawsari
7.9
1
N. Al-Aqidi
5.5
12
N. Boushal
6.2
3
M. Simakan
6.4
26
I. Martínez
6.6
23
A. Yahya
6.5
21
K. Coman
5.6
17
A. Al-Khaibari
6.3
11
M. Brozović
6.2
20
Ângelo
6.1
79
J. Félix
6.9
7
C. Ronaldo
7.5
Substitutes
30P. Marí6.828M. Kanno7.69M. Leonardo6.578A. Lajami23S. Mandash6.614A. Darisi40A. A. Rasen99A. Al-Hamdan4Y. Akçiçek
Coach: Simone Inzaghi
52%Possession48%
2.12Expected goals (xG)0.78
8Total shots9
3Shots on target1
3Big chances1
5Corners4
7Fouls11
1Yellow cards3