Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Mjällby's hosting a wounded Kalmar side that's barely holding it together.** The home team have won 11 of 22 H2H meetings and sit on a decent run (2W-1D in last three), while Kalmar have dropped three straight — **the sharp contrast in form is the real story here.** 🔵
Mjällby are clicking at the right time with back-to-back wins, though they'll be without **T. Stavitski** and **V. Dalsgaard** at the back. **Kalmar FF** are spiraling at home, managing just one win in five and shipping goals for fun — losing 0-3 to Brommapojkarna last time out tells you everything.
Key storylines:
- **Mjällby's home record and H2H dominance** should count for serious points against a team that can't score (one goal in three home games)
- **Kalmar's injury absences** (**A. Keita** and **E. Nnamani** out) leave them short-staffed and vulnerable
- **T. Pettersson** and the Mjällby midfield can control tempo against a listless Kalmar engine
Expected lineups:
- **Mjällby AIF**: R. Wallinder, A. Iqbal, T. Miettinen, A. Norén, M. Nielsen, T. Pettersson, V. Granath, J. Gustavsson, J. Bergström
- **Kalmar FF**: S. Brolin, M. Söderbäck, V. Larsson, J. Lofgren, C. Gustafsson, A. Magashy, R. Gojani, C. Sagoe Jr.
Prediction:
**Mjällby 2-0 Kalmar.** Home edge, form gap, and Kalmar's defensive leaks make this a lean toward the hosts. 🎯
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.2%.
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