Live win probability
BSD modelIn-game win probability from our ML pre-match model, updated by score, time and live xG. Something FotMob and Sofascore don't show.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Match prediction BSD model
Both Teams to Score
BTTS Yes 18% · Pick: BTTS No
Total Goals 1.5
Over 1.5 goals 92% · Pick: Over 1.5 goals
Total Goals 2.5
Over 2.5 goals 72%
Total Goals 3.5
Over 3.5 goals 40%
Timeline
A. Al-Hejji
24'
M. Brozović
27'
A. Kone
33'
🔁A. Faris ◂ I. A. Hawsawi
61'
🔁A. Ghareeb ◂ A. Al-Hamdan
64'
🔁S. Al-Ghannam ◂ N. Boushal
64'
🔁S. Al-Faraj ◂ A. Al-Hejji
67'
🔁H. H. A. Ali ◂ M. Al-Burayk
84'
I. Martínez
87'
🔁A. Al-Hassan ◂ Ângelo
90'
⚽M. Simakan
assist J. Félix
assist J. Félix
90'
🔁A. Yahya ◂ I. Martínez
90'
🔁A. Al-Khaibari ◂ M. Brozović
90'
A. Ghareeb
90'
Form
Al-Nassr
WWWWW
Neom SC
WLWDL
Match facts
Stadium
Al-Awwal Park
City
Riyadh
Referee
Khaled Al Teris
Kickoff
07 Mar, 19:00 UTC
Al-Nassr
4-4-2
24
Bento
7.5
12
N. Boushal
7.0
3
M. Simakan
⚽1
8.5
5
A. Al-Amri
6.7
26
I. Martínez
7.1
21
K. Coman
7.1
11
M. Brozović
6.7
20
Ângelo
8.5
10
S. Mané
7.3
79
J. Félix
9.0
9
A. Al-Hamdan
6.5
Substitutes
2
S. Al-Ghannam
6.9
29
A. Ghareeb
6.7
23
A. Yahya
6.7
17
A. Al-Khaibari
6.6
19
A. Al-Hassan
4
N. A. Sharari
83
S. Alnajdi
96
S. F. A. Nasser
61
M. Al-Buainain
Neom SC
4-2-3-1
81
L. Maximiano
9.2
2
M. Al-Burayk
7.3
93
A. A. Saluli
7.1
44
N. Zeze
7.1
27
I. A. Hawsawi
6.8
8
A. Doucouré
6.2
72
A. Kone
6.7
80
R. M. Tanfouri
6.9
18
A. Al-Hejji
6.7
10
S. Benrahma
6.7
91
A. Lacazette
7.1
Substitutes
25
A. Faris
6.4
7
S. Al-Faraj
6.3
11
H. H. A. Ali
6.5
47
Y. Al-Shanqeeti
1
M. Malaika
51
J. Carabalí
71
A. Abdu
59
A. Al-Khanani
95
A. Fallatah
Coach: Jorge Jesus
Coach: Thierry Oleksiak
57%Possession43%
2.76Expected goals (xG)0.64
25Total shots6
10Shots on target2
2Big chances2
8Corners1
15Fouls12
3Yellow cards2